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{
"Added Entry": "United States. Small Business Administration. Office of Advocacy.",
"Author": "Haynes, George W.",
"Bibliography": "Includes bibliographical references (pages 42-43).",
"CGP Record Link": "https://catalog.gpo.gov:443/F/?func=direct\u0026doc_number=000685539\u0026local_base=GPO01PUB",
"Content Type": "text",
"Description": "1 online resource (51 pages)",
"Format": "online resource",
"General Note": "Title from title screen (viewed on Dec. 2, 2011).\n\"Release date: January 2010.\"\n\"Under contract no.: SBAHQ-08-M-0454.\"",
"Genre/Form": "Statistics.",
"Holdings": "All items",
"Internet Access": "https://purl.fdlp.gov/GPO/gpo15922",
"Item Number": "0901-B (online)",
"OCLC Number": "(OCoLC)765969261",
"Published": "[Washington, D.C.] : SBA Office of Advocacy, [2010]",
"SuDoc Number": "SBA 1.2:IN 2/3",
"Subject - LC": "Small business -- United States -- Finance -- Statistics.\nIncome -- United States -- Statistics.\nWealth -- United States -- Statistics.",
"System Number": "000685539",
"Title": "Income and wealth [electronic resource] : how did households owning small businesses fare from 1989 to 2007 /",
"URL": "http://archive.sba.gov/advo/research/rs357tot.pdf"
}
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Income and Wealth: How Did Households Owning Small Businesses Fare from 1998 to 2007 by George W. Haynes, Ph.D. Montana State University Bozeman, MT 59717 for Under contract no. SBAHQ-08-M-0454 Release Date: January 2010 This report was developed under a contract with the Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, and contains information and analysis that was reviewed and edited by officials of the Office of Advocacy. However, the final conclusions of the report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Advocacy. 2 Contents Introduction 3 Literature Review 4 Conceptual Considerations 7 Empirical Considerations 8 Results 16 Conclusions 35 References 42 Appendix A 44 Appendix B 45 Appendix C 46 3 Introduction The general economic expansion earlier in this decade dramatically increased the wealth of some individuals while leaving others with less modest increases, or decreases, in wealth. While there is ample discussion of the growth of businesses in the United States over the past 30 years, there is very limited knowledge about the owners (individuals or households) of privately held businesses. The public debate about wealth distribution and income inequality centered around the divide between the rich and the poor or the wealthy and the poverty-stricken, rather than the difference between those who owned and/or operated businesses versus those who worked for others and the unemployed. This study examines changes in the distributions of income and wealth for three primary types of households: households not owning a business, households owning and managing only one small business (single business owners), and households owning and managing at least one small business and owning other businesses (multiple business owners). Using this classification of households (and business owners) and the Surveys of Consumer Finances from 1998 to 2007, this study assesses changes in the income earned and wealth accumulated by different types of small businesses from 1998 to 2007. Using the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, this study examines two important questions: (1) Did families with small business owners living in the household increase their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 1998 to 2007? 4 (2) Did families with more than one small business increase their income and wealth by more than other families owning small businesses from 1998 to 2007? Literature Review The financial situation of U.S. families changed substantially between the early 1990s and 2007. The literature review examines relevant literature assessing changes in the income and wealth of U.S. families. Special attention is given to evidence of changes in the income and wealth of U.S. families who own one or more small businesses. A relatively comprehensive literature exists on the financial condition (income and wealth) of families, but the literature is much less comprehensive for the subset of families who own businesses. The Federal Reserve Board assesses recent changes in U.S. family finances every three years when summarizing results derived from the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances (Kennickell and Starr-McCluer, 1997; Kennickell, StarrMcCluer and Surette, 2000; Aizcorbe, Kennickell and Moore, 2003; Bucks, Kennickell and Moore, 2006; Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore, 2009). Between 1992 and 1995, real mean and median family income increased slightly, although not sufficiently to offset the declines from 1989 to 1992 (Kennickell and StarrMcCluer, 1997). By 1995, median income and wealth were nearly the same as in 1989; however, mean income and wealth had not fully recovered. This period of time from 1992 through 1995 was one of continued economic expansion in the U.S. economy. By 1998, real mean and median family income had surpassed their 1989 levels, having exhibited strong growth between 1995 and 1998. This period was marked by an increase 5 in the holding of stock equity and a booming stock market (Kennickell, Starr-McCluer and Surette, 2000). While family indebtedness increased over this period of time, asset growth was more rapid. By 1998, the economy was in the seventh year of an economic expansion. Civilian unemployment was around 4.5% and the average annual inflation rate of 2.2%, as measured by the consumer price index, had been low for the previous three years. Mean and median family income continued to grow from 1998 through 2001 with the fastest growth occurring among higher income households (Azicorbe, Kennickell and Moore, 2003). The Survey of Consumer Finances shows that the median value of real family income continued to trend upward, while the mean value of real family income actually declined from 2001 to 2004 (Bucks, Kennickell and Moore, 2006). This result may suggest distributional changes within the groups. The authors suggest that three important shifts occurred during this time: (1) house values appreciated and homeownership increased; (2) prices in the equity market generally recovered; and (3) the debt to asset ratio increased. The most recent Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that the median value of real family income before taxes was unchanged from 2004 to 2007, while both median and mean net worth increased (Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore, 2009). The increase in the share of total assets attributed to unrealized capital gains were especially important from 2004 to 2007. The share of unrealized capital gains in total assets rose from 5.1% to nearly 36% from 2004 to 2007. While no other authors addressed small business owners, Wolff (1998) argued that “. . . small business equity, which tends to move with stock prices, is also highly 6 concentrated among the rich.” While small business owners may have realized an increase in the value of their assets with the increase in the stock market, other evidence suggests that small business owners hold more debt than non-business-owning families (Haynes and Avery, 1996). In addition, recent research suggests that small business owners are willing to assume more risk and hold more risky portfolios of assets (Xaio, Alhabeeb, Hong and Haynes, 2001). Thus, whether or not families owning small businesses improved their financial status between 1989 and 2004 is an open question. This study examines changes in the real income and wealth of families owning small businesses to determine whether they had higher mean income and wealth and increasing or decreasing shares of total income and wealth from 1989 to 2004. Another study completed by Haynes (2005) suggests that households owning small businesses, especially those owning only one small business, appear to have made smaller contributions to total wealth in 2001 than in the early 1990s. The evidence suggested that households owning only one small business seemed to be losing the race. They were making progress in increasing income and wealth, but they were making less progress than households not owning small businesses. A more recent study provides further evidence that compared with other households, those with small businesses made less progress in increasing their wealth and very similar progress in increasing their income in the late 1980s, a time of robust business activity, and early 2000s, a time of recovery for businesses (Haynes and Ou, 2006). However, an examination of data from 1992, a year of recovery, through 2004, another year of recovery, indicated that households owning small businesses appeared to have progressed at about the same rate as other households. 7 A sharp downturn in the stock market occurred in the second quarter of 2000 putting downward pressure on the income and wealth of many households. Financial prosperity in the 1990s was primarily dependent upon the rise of the stock markets. The 2004 and 2007 SCFs capture this downturn in the stock market and enable a comparison of the financial success of small-business-owning families and other families in a time when the influence of the stock market changed substantially. On one hand, the lower expected returns in the stock market should have encouraged investors to shift money to business development. On the other hand, the downturn in the stock market substantially reduced the wealth of some investors and limited their ability to invest in other ventures. Thus, whether or not families owning small businesses improved their financial status by 2007 is an open question. This study examines changes in the real income and wealth of families owning small businesses to determine if they had higher mean and median income and wealth and increasing or decreasing shares of total income and wealth from 1998 to 2007. Conceptual Considerations This study utilizes a household decision-making model to assess the success of small businesses, as measured by changes in income and wealth. While most other studies of small business success utilize the profit function, this study utilizes household income and wealth to assess the success of business-owning households. This strategy for addressing small business issues was originally suggested by Lopez (1986) in the following statement: “ . . . the financial resources of the small firm are arguably intertwined with those of the household. This interdependence of resources suggests a theoretical model, 8 where the small business activity is integrated into the household utility maximization model.” This conceptual model maximizes household utility subject to time and budget constraints, where the business’s profit function is embedded in the budget constraint. Recent work by Haynes and Onochie (2005) suggests that increases in the available cash in the business (from higher gross sales or net profits) bring more cash into the household, while only increases in the value of business (wealth) increase the amount of money spent on other household assets. Interestingly, these business financial indicators were not associated with measures of general well-being in the household. In general, this model suggests that invoking the weak separability assumption and treating the business profit function in isolation fails to recognize the intermingling of resources between the business and household. This study recognizes the importance of the intermingling of resources and examines two hypotheses: (1) Families with small business owners living in the household increased their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 1998 to 2007; and (2) Families with more than one small business increased their income and wealth by more than other families owning one small business from 1998 to 2007. Empirical Considerations This section summarizes the data from the 1998 and 2007 Surveys of Consumer Finances and presents the statistical models employed. While this is primarily a descriptive study of small businesses in two time periods, it employs multivariate logistic and linear 9 regression models to assess the determinants of high income and wealth among households owning small businesses. Data The 1998 through 2007 Surveys of Consumer Finances (SCF) were conducted for the Federal Reserve Board by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. The surveys are designed to supply detailed and reliable information on balance sheets, use of financial services, pensions, labor force participation, cash income and demographic characteristics of U.S. households. The SCF utilizes a dual frame sample to provide adequate coverage of the population. One frame is a multistage area probability sample, which provides adequate coverage of widely held assets and liabilities. The second frame is a list design employed to over-sample relatively wealthy households. Response rates for the area probability and list samples in 1998 and 2007 were approximately 70% and 30%, respectively. Research conducted by the Federal Reserve Board suggests that nonresponse is positively correlated with wealth. This study is primarily interested in examining smallbusiness-owning families. However, the entire sample is employed to assess the differences between business-owning and non-business-owning families. The SCF survey asks respondents about the previous year; hence, the SCF for 2007 actually gathers information about the finances of the family and business in 2006. The variables of interest in this study include business ownership status of the household, household income and household wealth (including assets and debt held by members of the household). Business ownership status was determined by whether an 10 individual owned and/or actively managed at least one business. Households owning large businesses (500 or more employees) and households with only investors (owners, but not managers) were not included in this study. Small business owners are separated into two categories: single business owners, who own and manage only one business, and multiple business owners, who own and manage at least one small business and own (and possibly manage) other businesses. Financial data, such as income and wealth data, often have a substantial percentage of missing values. The SCF is a fully imputed data set with five separate implicates available for every missing value. This study utilizes only one implicate in the SCF. Household income and wealth were computed using all of the financial information reported in the SCF. Household income is computed by summing the following sources of income: wages and salaries, interest, dividends, asset sales, rents, unemployment, child support, welfare, social security and other sources. The wealth of the household was determined by generating a balance sheet, using a program supplied by the Federal Reserve Board, to estimate the wealth of each household. Total wealth was computed by subtracting total liabilities from total financial and nonfinancial assets. Financial assets were computed by summing the value of transaction accounts, certificates of deposit, directly held mutual funds, stocks, bonds, individual retirement accounts, saving bonds, cash value of life insurance, other managed assets and other financial assets. Nonfinancial assets were computed by summing the value of vehicles, primary residence, other residential real estate, equity in nonresidential real estate, business interests and other nonfinancial assets. Liabilities were tabulated by summing the value of housing debt, 11 other lines of credit, debt for other residential property, credit cards, installment loans and other debts. This study will discuss the changes in income from 1998 to the most recent data collected in 2007. All income figures have been adjusted to 2007 dollars using the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) as employed by Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore (2009). Control variables include personal and demographic characteristics of the household head and business owner, and characteristics of the business. The personal and demographic characteristics include age, race (White, Black, Hispanic and other), gender, education (no high school diploma, high school diploma, some college and college degree or more), marital status (married, previously married or never married) and public stock and real estate ownership (yes or no). Business characteristics include number of employees, age of the firm, legal organization, industrial classification and founding strategy. The sampling frame for this analysis is U.S. households, which are referred to as families in this report. Personal and demographic characteristics are those characteristics of the respondent interviewed, typically the household head. If the respondent or someone in the household owns and manages a business, this study is referring to the largest business. No business information is available for businesses owned but not managed by the respondent. Small businesses are businesses with fewer than 500 employees that are owned and managed by a family member. This study has not differentiated between franchise and nonfranchise businesses. 12 Models This study is primarily descriptive, where family income and wealth are compared for business-owning and non-business-owning families from 1998 to 2007. This descriptive analysis requires the careful comparison of means using regression analysis to assess differences among business and non-business-owning families across time (1998 through 2007). The most important questions assessed in this study are the following: (1) Did families with small business owners living in the household increase their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 1998 to 2007? (2) Did families with more than one small business increase their income and wealth by more than other families owning small businesses from 1998 to 2007? Logistic and linear regression models are used to examine these two questions for three time periods, 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007. The first set of models utilizes dummy variables for the year 2007 and households with a small business to determine whether households owning a small business fared better from 1998 to 2007 than other households. The variables of interest are the main effects on the dummy variables (year 2007 and small business) and the interaction term. To be consistent with previous studies, high income and wealth are based on levels established in 1992, where high income was income over $50,000 per year and high wealth was net worth over $1 million in 1992 dollars. When these 1992 levels are adjusted for inflation, high income is $73,779 and high wealth is $1.476 million in 2007 dollars. Six separate models are used in this study: (1) logistic regression model to examine the probability of being high income; (2) logistic regression model to examine 13 the probability of being high wealth, where high wealth is holding $1 million in 1992 dollars; (3) logistic regression model to examine the probability of being high income, where high income is being in the top 50% of income earners; (4) logistic regression model to examine the probability of being high wealth, where high wealth is being in the top 50% of wealth holders; (5) linear regression model utilizing log of household income as the dependent variable; and (6) linear regression model utilizing log of household wealth as the dependent variable. The six models are specified as follows: HI = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HI = high income (1=greater than $73,779 in 2007$) SB = household with a small business dummy variable; Y07= year dummy variable for 2007; age = age of the household head; race = race of the household head (1=minority, 0=otherwise); gender = gender of household head (1=male, 0=female); education = education level (categorical variables for some high school, high school graduate, some college, college graduate); marital status = marital status (1=married, 0=unmarried); stock ownership = owns publicly traded stock (1=yes, 0=no); and real estate ownership = owns real estate (1=yes, 0=no). HW = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HW = high wealth (1= greater than $$1.476 in 2007$) all other variables are the same as above. HI50 = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HI50 = high income (1=top 50% of income earners) all other variables are the same as above. HW50 = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HW50 = high wealth (1=top 50% of wealth holders) all other variables are the same as above. Log income = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) 14 Log wealth = f(SB, Y07, SB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) Using the first model (high-income logistic regression) as an example, a positive and significant coefficient on the year variable would indicate that all households have a higher probability of being classified as high income in 2007 than 1998, ceteris paribus. A positive and significant coefficient on the small business variable would indicate that households with a small business owned and operated by a household member would have a higher probability of being classified as high income than other households without a small business owned and operated by a household member, ceteris paribus. A positive and significant coefficient on the interaction term would indicate that households with small businesses fared better than other households from 1998 to 2007. This same analysis was conducted for 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007 to test for the robustness of these results over time. The second set of regressions utilizes the same dummy variable for the year 2007 and a dummy variable to identify households owning multiple small businesses to determine whether households owning multiple small businesses fared better from 1998 to 2007 than households owning just one small business. This set of regressions uses observations for households owning and managing one or more small businesses only. The variables of interest are the main effects on the dummy variables (year 2007 and multiple small business ownership) and the interaction term. The second set of models is specified as follows: HI = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HI = high income (1=greater than $73,779 in 2007$) 15 MB = household with a multiple small businesses dummy variable; Y07= year dummy variable for 2007; age = age of the household head (dummy variables for less than 35, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74 and 75 or older); race = race of the household head (1=minority, 0=otherwise); gender = gender of household head (1= male and 0=female); education = education level (categorical variables for some high school, high school graduate, some college, college graduate); marital status = marital status (1= married or 0=unmarried); stock ownership = owns publicly traded stock (1=yes, 0=no); real estate ownership = owns real estate (1=yes, 0=no); employees = number of employees in the business (continuous); firm age = age of the business (continuous); legal organization = categorical variables for partnership, sole proprietorship, subchapter s corporation and regular corporation); industrial classification = categorical variables for agriculture, construction/manufacturing, wholesale/retail and service/other); and, founding status = categorical variables for bought/invested, started and inherited/given. HW = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HW = high wealth (1= greater than $$1.476 in 2007$) all other variables are the same as above. HI50 = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HI50 = high income (1=top 50% of income earners) all other variables are the same as above. HW50 = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HW50 = high wealth (1=top 50% of wealth holders) all other variables are the same as above. Log income = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) 16 Log wealth = f(MB, Y07, MB*Y07; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership, employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) Once again, the coefficient on the interaction term (MB*Y07) is assessed to determine whether households with multiple small businesses have fared better than other households owning small businesses from 1998 to 2007. This same analysis was conducted for 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007 to test for the robustness of these results over time. The next section reports the results of this study. Results This section compares the weighted samples in 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2007, evaluates the probability of being classified as high income and/or high wealth, examines the number of business-owning households, compares the demographic and financial characteristics of single- and multiple-business-owning families, compares real mean and median income and wealth, compares the shares of total family income and wealth between business-owning and non-business-owning families and across different types of business owners, and assesses the determinants of high income and high wealth families over the 10 years of this study (1998 through 2007). Univariate Analysis The sample weights were employed for the univariate and multivariate analyses in this study. The characteristics of the household and business were somewhat different in 1998 and 2007 (Table 1). The household heads interviewed in 2007 were somewhat older, more likely to be from a minority group, slightly better educated, slightly higher 17 Table 1 Sample Characteristics Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 Age Less than 35 23.3 22.7 22.2 21.7 35 to 44 23.3 * 22.3 * 20.7 19.6 45 to 54 19.2 20.7 20.7 20.8 55 to 64 12.8 * 13.2 * 15.3 * 16.8 65 to 74 11.2 10.7 10.4 10.5 75 or more 10.2 10.3 10.7 10.6 Gender Man 72.1 73.3 71.9 72.3 Woman 27.9 26.7 28.1 27.7 Race Nonwhite or Hispanic 22.2 * 23.7 * 26.4 26.1 White, non-Hispanic 77.8 * 76.3 * 73.6 73.9 Education No high school diploma 16.3 * 15.9 * 14.5 13.5 High school diploma 31.8 31.6 30.7 * 32.9 Some college 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.4 College degree 33.3 34.2 36.5 35.2 Marital Status Married 52.2 53.2 * 50.4 51.0 Not married 47.8 46.8 * 49.6 49.0 Income of household (2007 dollars) Less than $10,000 9.5 * 7.6 * 7.2 6.4 $10,000 to $24,999 19.4 18.1 18.9 19.6 $25,000 to $49,999 27.2 27.0 26.1 26.4 $50,000 to $99,999 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.0 $100,000 or more 15.3 * 18.6 19.3 19.6 Net Worth of Household (2007 Dollars) Less than $50,000 39.5 * 37.7 38.3 36.6 $50,000 to $99,999 11.9 * 11.7 * 11.4 10.2 $100,000 to $249,999 21.2 * 18.8 18.9 18.8 $250,000 to $499,999 14.0 13.9 12.6 * 14.9 $500,000 to $999,999 7.8 * 9.5 9.8 10.5 $1,000,000 or more 5.6 * 8.5 9.0 9.1 Owns Public Stock Yes 15.3 18.6 * 19.3 * 19.6 No 84.7 81.4 * 80.7 * 80.4 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) Yes 9.5 * 7.6 * 7.2 6.4 No 90.5 * 92.4 * 92.8 93.6 18 Table 1 Sample Characteristics (continued) Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 Business Owner Yes 12.7 13.7 13.2 13.6 No 87.3 86.3 86.8 86.4 Business Owners Only Small Business Owner Manager Yes 55.4 53.8 52.4 52.3 No 44.6 46.2 47.6 47.7 Business Age Less than 1 year 4.4 5.7 9.2 * 5.5 1 to 4 years 29.0 22.8 25.2 25.9 5 to 9 years 18.9 17.5 21.0 17.9 10 to 19 years 24.9 23.8 21.3 23.0 20 years or more 22.8 30.2 23.4 27.7 Business Size (including owner) 1 or fewer 42.3 43.7 44.1 44.9 2 to 4 35.0 31.1 32.1 29.8 5 to 9 12.7 12.8 9.7 9.9 10 to 24 4.8 * 6.9 7.1 8.3 25 or more 5.2 5.6 6.9 7.1 Business Size (gross sales) Less than $50,000 54.9 * 49.6 51.9 47.8 $50,000 - $99,999 11.5 10.7 13.6 12.0 $100,000 - $249,999 10.3 12.2 9.7 13.1 $250,000 - $499,999 8.4 9.4 8.3 7.7 $500,000 - $999,999 6.7 6.7 3.9 6.0 $1,000,000 or more 8.1 * 11.5 12.6 13.3 Legal Organization Partnership 24.1 * 24.0 * 28.1 * 34.2 Sole proprietorship 51.1 * 49.3 48.3 44.2 Subchapter S corporation 13.0 15.7 14.2 14.1 Subchapter C corporation 11.8 11.0 * 9.3 7.4 Business Industrial Classification Agriculturally related 10.0 13.4 9.6 10.3 Mining/construction/manufacturing 24.4 19.4 23.6 23.9 Wholesale, retail 16.2 11.8 17.8 13.7 Services and other 49.4 55.3 49.0 52.1 Founding Status Bought or invested 20.9 * 18.3 16.2 16.2 Started 66.1 68.3 71.6 * 65.5 Inherited/given/other 12.9 * 13.5 * 12.2 * 18.3 Number of Observations, all 4,305 4,442 4,519 4,418 Number of Observations, business only ho 1,277 1,354 1,385 1,417 19 income earners, slightly higher wealth holders, and more likely to own real estate than household heads in 1998. The businesses operated by members of the household were quite similar in 1998 and 2007. Businesses were somewhat larger, more likely to be organized as partnerships and less likely to be organized as sole proprietorships, and less likely to have been purchased (bought or invested in) businesses and more likely to have been inherited businesses in 2007 than in 1998. All respondents were significantly more likely to be high income earners in 2007 than 1998 with 26.3% of households being high income in 1998 and 31.0% of households being high income in 2007 (Table 2). Families owning any businesses were significantly more likely to be high income earners in 2007 than 1998. Just under 48% of small business owners were classified as high income in 1998, while nearly 59% of small business owners were classified as high income by 2007. The largest percentage gain in the likelihood of being high income (53.7%) from 1998 to 2007 was achieved by small business owners with more than one business. The wealth picture was very similar, with all households realizing a significant increase in the likelihood of being classified as high wealth. Small-business-owning households realized an increase in the likelihood being classified as high wealth from 13.4% in 1998 to 23.7% in 2007 (Table 3). Again, the largest percentage gain in the likelihood of being high wealth (82.7%) from 1998 to 2007 was achieved by small business owners with more than one business. In 1998, small-business-owning households were over two times more likely to be classified as high income (47.6% versus 23.0%) and about eight times more likely to be 20 Table 2 Probability of Being High Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 0.263 0.312 0.300 0.310 0.178 -0.006 0.033 No business ownership 0.230 0.266 0.258 0.263 0.143 -0.011 0.021 Any business ownership 0.486 0.597 0.574 0.605 0.246 0.014 0.055 Small business 0.476 0.583 0.565 0.589 0.236 0.009 0.042 single business only 0.471 0.553 0.523 0.550 0.166 -0.005 0.051 multiple businesses 0.497 0.694 0.760 0.763 0.537 0.101 0.005 Note: Bolded and italicized proportions are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 proportions (reference group). Proportional Change Table 3 Probability of Being High Wealth, 1989 to 2004 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 0.033 0.052 0.052 0.060 0.824 0.172 0.158 No business ownership 0.017 0.024 0.029 0.030 0.776 0.230 0.052 Any business ownership 0.144 0.222 0.207 0.254 0.759 0.142 0.226 Small business 0.134 0.210 0.196 0.237 0.763 0.126 0.209 single business only 0.093 0.165 0.139 0.167 0.795 0.010 0.200 multiple businesses 0.301 0.373 0.460 0.550 0.827 0.477 0.197 Note: Bolded and italicized proportions are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 1989 proportions (reference group). (proportions) Proportional Change classified high wealth (13.4% versus 1.7%) than households not owning a business; and multiple business owners had the highest probability of being classified high income 21 (49.7%) and high wealth (30.1%) of the small business owners. In 2007, a household owning any small business had nearly a 59% chance of being classified high income and more than a 23% chance of being classified as high wealth. By 2007 the income gap between households with and without small businesses had widened slightly and the wealth gap had remained about the same. Small-business-owning households were now just over two times more likely to be classified high income (58.9% versus 26.3%) and nearly eight times more likely to be classified as high wealth (23.7% versus 3.0%). Multiple business owners still appeared to be the most prosperous small business group, with over three-fourths of them high income and over one-half classified as high wealth. From 1998 to 2007 the likelihood of being high income and high wealth increased for all groups. More recently (from 2004 to 2007), households owning a small business have done much better than other households. Households owning a small business realized a 4.2% increase in the likelihood of being high income and more than 20% increase in the likelihood of being high wealth, while households with no business ownership realized increases of 2.1% and 5.2% in the likelihood being high income and high wealth, respectively. Given this relatively positive increase in the likelihood of being a high income earner or high wealth holder one would expect the percentage of smallbusiness-owning households to increase. Interestingly, the percentage of households with small businesses increased slightly from 11.7% of all households in 1998 (about 12 million small businesses and 102.5 million households) to nearly 12.4% of all households in 2007 (14.3 million small businesses and 116.1 million households). Table 4 compares mean household income for all households and those owning at least one business. Real mean income was significantly higher in 2007 than in 1998 for 22 Table 4 Mean Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 67,718 81,064 77,299 84,399 0.246 0.041 0.092 No business ownership 56,045 64,199 62,301 64,207 0.146 0.000 0.031 Any business ownership 147,708 187,157 175,649 212,947 0.442 0.138 0.212 Small business 139,284 168,373 157,842 185,350 0.331 0.101 0.174 single business only 109,812 142,074 125,622 143,736 0.309 0.012 0.144 multiple businesses 257,817 262,432 306,732 371,180 0.440 0.414 0.210 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) all household types, increasing by nearly 25% from $67,718 in 1998 to $84,399 in 2007. Households not owning a business realized a real mean income increase of 14.6% from 1998 to 2007. Small business real mean income increased from $139,284 to $185,350 (33.1%). Real mean income for small businesses owning just one business increased from $109,812 in 1998 to $143,736 in 2007 (30.9%), even though it had fluctuated substantially over this period of time. Multiple-business-owning households realized an increase of over 40% in real mean income from 1998 to 2007. Median income results are similar to the mean income results, although median income increased by a much lower percentage than mean income for non-business owners (6.2%) and a much higher percentage than mean income for multiple business owners (97.1%). Refer to Table 4.1 for other median income results (See Appendix A). The wealth story is very similar (Table 5). Real mean wealth increased by over 56% for all households from 1998 to 2007. Households not owning a business realized a real mean wealth increase of just under 40%. Households owning a small business realized a substantial increase in wealth from $1,167,271 to $1,906,807 (63.4%). 23 Table 5 Mean Wealth, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 356,310 467,234 483,604 557,592 0.565 0.193 0.153 No business ownership 219,341 274,485 287,857 306,783 0.399 0.118 0.066 Any business ownership 1,294,922 1,679,758 1,767,183 2,154,334 0.664 0.283 0.219 Small business 1,167,271 1,529,587 1,604,712 1,906,807 0.634 0.247 0.188 single business only 783,066 1,092,480 1,036,995 1,168,055 0.492 0.069 0.126 multiple businesses 2,712,511 3,092,892 4,228,141 5,205,702 0.919 0.683 0.231 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) Households with just one business realized a significantly more modest increase (49.2%), while households with more than one business realized substantially higher increases in real mean wealth (91.9%) than other small business owners. Median wealth results are similar to the mean wealth results, although median wealth increased by a much lower percentage than mean wealth for non-business owners (19.6%) and a much higher percentage than mean wealth for multiple business owners (214%). Please refer to Table 5.1 for other median income results (See Appendix B). Aggregate household income increased by just over 42% for all respondents between 1998 and 2007 (Table 6). The unit of observation is all families belonging to a specific group in each time period. Aggregate income may increase over time either because the group has become larger or because group members have earned more income. Families with small business ownership realized a much higher percentage change in aggregate income than families without any business ownership (58.8% versus 28%). Households owning multiple businesses realized the largest increase in aggregate 24 Table 6 Aggregate Income for All Households, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) All respondents 6.9 8.6 8.7 9.8 0.420 0.140 0.126 No business ownership 5.0 5.9 6.1 6.4 0.280 0.085 0.049 Any business ownership 1.9 2.7 2.6 3.4 0.789 0.259 0.308 Small business 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.7 0.588 0.227 0.227 single business only 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.545 0.133 0.214 multiple businesses 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.667 0.250 0.250 Changes (2007 dollars) income (nearly 67%) of any households owning small businesses, while households owning only one business realized a smaller increase in aggregate income (54.5%). Families with no business ownership realized smaller percentage changes in aggregate wealth than families with some small business ownership (Table 7). Small business owners nearly doubled their aggregate wealth from 1998 to 2007 from $14.0 trillion in 1998 to $27.3 trillion in 2007. Households owning just one small business realized an increase in aggregate wealth of over 82%, while those households owning more than one small business realized an increase in aggregate wealth of over 110%. Multiple business owners are a critical part of the small business economic engine. In 1998 these multiple business households constituted about 20% of all smallbusiness-owning households; however, they earned over 35% of total household income and held over 46% of the wealth of small business owners. In 2007, they constituted about 18% of all small-business-owning households; however, they now earned 37% of total household income and held over 50% of the wealth of small-business-owning 25 Table 7 Aggregate Wealth for All Households, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) All respondents 36.5 49.8 54.2 64.7 0.773 0.299 0.194 No business ownership 19.6 25.2 28.0 30.8 0.571 0.222 0.100 Any business ownership 16.9 24.5 26.2 34.0 1.012 0.388 0.298 Small business 14.0 20.2 22.1 27.3 0.950 0.351 0.235 single business only 7.5 11.3 11.7 13.7 0.827 0.212 0.171 multiple businesses 6.5 8.9 10.3 13.7 1.108 0.539 0.330 Changes (2007 dollars) households. It appears that households owning multiple small businesses are becoming more significant contributors to aggregate household income and wealth. Multivariate Analysis Tables 8, 9 and 10 examine the determinants of high income and high wealth for all households from 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007, respectively. The six models reported in these tables examine how households owning and managing small businesses fared in relation to other households from 1998 to 2007. Households owning small businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth; a higher probability of being in the top 50% of income and wealth; and have higher log income and log wealth than other households (Table 8). In general, households have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth; have a lower probability of being in the top 50% of income and wealth; and have higher log income in 2007 than 1998. The interaction term was nearly statistically significant in just the high income 26 Table 8 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 1998 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.4823 0.0001 -8.8639 0.0001 -0.1998 0.0797 -4.8245 0.0001 10.2250 0.0001 5.2556 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.2915 0.0116 1.5252 0.0001 0.4061 0.0016 1.3991 0.0001 0.1571 0.0067 1.2159 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.2468 0.0002 0.5880 0.0001 -0.1591 0.0059 -0.2432 0.0002 0.2021 0.0001 0.0849 0.1820 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.3088 0.0543 0.2349 0.3396 0.2401 0.1809 0.0508 0.8129 -0.0236 0.7606 0.0437 0.8109 Age of owner manager -0.0145 0.0001 0.0415 0.0001 -0.0226 0.0001 0.0566 0.0001 -0.0047 0.0001 0.0479 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8545 0.0001 0.7792 0.0010 0.9393 0.0001 0.4933 0.0001 0.3532 0.0001 0.6607 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2665 0.0008 -0.6368 0.0030 -0.2325 0.0005 -0.3856 0.0001 -0.1872 0.0001 -0.4086 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.3248 0.0001 -2.0574 0.0001 -2.1554 0.0001 -1.5662 0.0001 -0.8971 0.0001 -1.1975 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4881 0.0001 -1.8023 0.0001 -1.2911 0.0001 -1.0151 0.0001 -0.5396 0.0001 -0.3802 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8646 0.0001 -1.2767 0.0001 -0.8476 0.0001 -0.6798 0.0001 -0.4001 0.0001 -0.5183 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.1338 0.0001 0.0879 0.6064 0.8270 0.0001 0.2807 0.0008 0.4175 0.0001 0.2186 0.0062 Owns Stocks 0.7961 0.0001 1.3654 0.0001 0.8215 0.0001 1.2522 0.0001 0.3372 0.0001 1.0769 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8253 0.0001 2.6633 0.0001 1.5846 0.0001 2.9262 0.0001 0.5798 0.0001 3.6049 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3288 0.3512 0.3160 0.4547 0.2791 0.4699 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 27 probability equation. The positive coefficient on the interaction term indicates that households owning small businesses in 2007 had a higher probability of being high income than other households in 1998 and 2007. In other words, households owning small businesses appear to have fared better than other households in increasing their probability of being high income over this period of time. The other income and wealth regressions would suggest that households owning small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 1998 to 2007. In general, it appears that households owning small businesses increased their income and wealth at the about the same rate as other households. A similar analysis using the data from 2001 to 2007 does not support all the results found in 1998 to 2007 (Table 9). Households owning small businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth, a higher probability of being in the highest 50% of income and wealth categories, and higher log income and wealth than other households. However, households only have a higher probability of being high wealth in 2007 than in 2001. The interaction term is not statistically significant in any of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regressions suggest that households owning small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 2001 to 2007. A similar analysis using the data from 2004 to 2007 generally supports the results found in 2001 to 2007 (Table 10). Households owning small businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth, a higher probability of being in the highest 50% of income and wealth categories, and higher log income and wealth than other households. Households have a higher probability of being high income and wealth 28 Table 9 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2001 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.0631 0.0001 -8.2564 0.0001 -0.3999 0.0006 -4.8031 0.0001 10.4280 0.0001 5.5671 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.5174 0.0001 1.9317 0.0001 0.3350 0.0071 1.8451 0.0001 0.2717 0.0001 1.2704 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.0248 0.6968 0.3714 0.0083 -0.0293 0.6147 -0.0883 0.1758 0.0379 0.0838 -0.0508 0.4095 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.0843 0.5940 -0.1318 0.5507 0.2964 0.0940 -0.4043 0.0718 -0.1142 0.0662 -0.0489 0.7794 Age of owner manager -0.0192 0.0001 0.0462 0.0001 -0.0236 0.0001 0.0539 0.0001 -0.0058 0.0001 0.0470 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8689 0.0001 0.4387 0.0551 0.9811 0.0001 0.3498 0.0002 0.2988 0.0001 0.5946 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2235 0.0034 -0.7752 0.0002 -0.1643 0.0144 -0.4051 0.0001 -0.1187 0.0001 -0.5087 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.0861 0.0001 -2.1018 0.0001 -2.2759 0.0001 -1.6886 0.0001 -0.8355 0.0001 -1.4242 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4426 0.0001 -1.8630 0.0001 -1.2875 0.0001 -1.0324 0.0001 -0.5011 0.0001 -0.4984 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8302 0.0001 -1.2142 0.0001 -0.7871 0.0001 -0.6880 0.0001 -0.3315 0.0001 -0.5391 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0639 0.0001 0.3530 0.0361 0.8686 0.0001 0.3494 0.0001 0.3993 0.0001 0.3630 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.8065 0.0001 1.3991 0.0001 0.7722 0.0001 1.2486 0.0001 0.3631 0.0001 0.9477 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8557 0.0001 2.0747 0.0001 1.6666 0.0001 2.9906 0.0001 0.5949 0.0001 3.5630 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3323 0.3606 0.3322 0.4639 0.3517 0.4874 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 29 Table 10 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2004 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.5226 0.0001 -9.0667 0.0001 -0.4939 0.0001 -5.5596 0.0001 10.3191 0.0001 5.1054 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.6840 0.0001 1.7685 0.0001 0.4466 0.0004 1.7418 0.0001 0.2334 0.0001 1.3210 0.0001 Year dummy, 2004 0.1448 0.0245 0.2969 0.0284 -0.0474 0.4157 0.0166 0.8001 0.0419 0.0582 0.0243 0.6860 Interaction: small business and 2004 -0.0910 0.5711 0.0083 0.9700 0.1709 0.3390 -0.2688 0.2209 -0.0758 0.2286 -0.0826 0.6296 Age of owner manager -0.0144 0.0001 0.0445 0.0001 -0.0211 0.0001 0.0574 0.0001 -0.0041 0.0001 0.0469 0.0001 Gender - man 1.0205 0.0001 0.6331 0.0040 0.8705 0.0001 0.5566 0.0001 0.3048 0.0001 0.8426 0.0001 Race - minority -0.1700 0.0251 -0.6622 0.0008 -0.1242 0.0601 -0.2146 0.0042 -0.0982 0.0001 -0.3157 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.4194 0.0001 -1.7239 0.0001 -2.3321 0.0001 -1.6239 0.0001 -0.8083 0.0001 -1.0926 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.5621 0.0001 -1.9781 0.0001 -1.3537 0.0001 -0.9386 0.0001 -0.5070 0.0001 -0.2786 0.0001 Education - some college -0.9292 0.0001 -1.1525 0.0001 -0.8399 0.0001 -0.7447 0.0001 -0.3714 0.0001 -0.4883 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.1127 0.0001 0.2901 0.0658 1.0729 0.0001 0.2705 0.0011 0.4465 0.0001 0.1119 0.1345 Owns Stocks 0.8165 0.0001 1.3470 0.0001 0.8835 0.0001 1.3288 0.0001 0.3301 0.0001 1.0353 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8547 0.0001 2.9690 0.0001 1.6396 0.0001 3.3229 0.0001 0.5840 0.0001 3.7887 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3483 0.3585 0.3424 0.4770 0.3396 0.4958 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 30 in 2007 than in 2004. Once again, the interaction term is not statistically significant in any of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regressions suggest that households owning small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 2004 to 2007. The control variables were quite interesting in this regression analysis. High income households are headed by younger people, while higher wealth households are headed by older people. Higher income households are more likely to be headed by men, the owners are well educated and they are married. In addition, high income and high wealth households are more likely to own public stock and real estate. Tables 11, 12 and 13 utilize information on households with small business owners to assess how multiple and single business owners fared from 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007, respectively. Households owning multiple businesses had a higher probability of being high wealth, a higher probability of being in the highest 50% wealth bracket and higher log income and wealth than other households owning small businesses (Table 11). Households owning small businesses had a higher probability of being high income and high wealth than other households in 2007 than in 1998. These households owning multiple businesses held more wealth than other small businesses. The interaction term was insignificant in all cases, except the log wealth equation. In the log wealth equation, the positive coefficient on the interaction term indicates that households owning multiple small businesses in 2007 had a higher probability of being high wealth than other households owning just one small business in 1998 and 2007. In other words, households owning multiple small businesses appear to have fared better than other households owning just one small business in increasing their wealth over this 31 Table 11 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 1998 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.6475 0.0045 -6.6128 0.0001 0.0561 0.9338 -2.0452 0.0217 9.9165 0.0001 9.4500 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0703 0.7923 1.3115 0.0002 0.5055 0.1306 1.1652 0.0124 0.2718 0.0313 0.7141 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.3914 0.0144 0.7840 0.0018 0.0600 0.7433 -0.2169 0.3193 0.1429 0.0633 0.1396 0.1317 Interaction: multiple owner and 1998 0.6833 0.0753 0.5613 0.2190 0.0634 0.8992 0.1321 0.8418 0.0986 0.5701 0.4452 0.0333 Owner Charateristics Age of owner manager -0.0111 0.1176 0.0226 0.0206 -0.0196 0.0151 0.0590 0.0001 -0.0033 0.3168 0.0333 0.0001 Gender - man 0.2830 0.3507 1.4517 0.0093 1.0433 0.0007 0.7090 0.0529 0.3827 0.0071 0.4042 0.0182 Race - minority -0.0043 0.9839 -0.7469 0.0634 -0.1461 0.5401 -0.1886 0.4671 -0.1526 0.1372 -0.0884 0.4744 Education - no high school diploma -1.4361 0.0001 -1.2473 0.0594 -1.1097 0.0004 -0.2301 0.5565 -0.4138 0.0054 -0.3588 0.0448 Education - high school diploma -1.0457 0.0001 -1.0963 0.0003 -0.9179 0.0001 -0.2902 0.2654 -0.4316 0.0001 -0.2798 0.0105 Education - some college -0.8228 0.0001 -1.1112 0.0003 -0.6721 0.0036 -0.6759 0.0122 -0.3919 0.0001 -0.3309 0.0033 Marital status - married 0.8575 0.0001 -0.2283 0.4254 0.3562 0.1081 0.0784 0.7603 0.1877 0.0462 0.1624 0.1516 Owns Stocks 0.2464 0.1369 0.6308 0.0023 0.5638 0.0113 1.2287 0.0001 0.1338 0.0906 0.7616 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.1563 0.0001 2.4172 0.0016 1.1055 0.0001 2.3589 0.0001 0.6507 0.0001 2.1062 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0239 0.0064 0.0452 0.0001 0.0154 0.1257 0.0272 0.0570 0.0118 0.0038 0.0232 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0196 0.5712 0.1092 0.1237 0.0117 0.8074 0.0169 0.8594 0.0005 0.5491 0.0012 0.2481 Organization, partnership -0.6934 0.0137 -0.4737 0.1542 -0.6919 0.0843 -0.9013 0.0818 -0.4209 0.0013 -0.6520 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6249 0.0163 -1.1645 0.0002 -0.7293 0.0557 -1.0722 0.0300 -0.3618 0.0028 -0.7253 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.3095 0.3215 -0.2087 0.5322 0.5952 0.2264 0.0894 0.8796 0.2057 0.1380 -0.0383 0.8182 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.8416 0.0037 0.4343 0.3353 0.5271 0.0695 -0.0433 0.9167 0.9293 0.0001 -0.2982 0.0648 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.6643 0.0305 -0.0050 0.9919 0.5883 0.0661 -0.9666 0.0256 0.9714 0.0001 -0.5382 0.0020 Industry, services and other 1.2450 0.0001 0.8274 0.0468 1.2134 0.0001 -0.2546 0.5227 1.1810 0.0001 -0.1803 0.2358 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.2494 0.4235 -0.4237 0.2794 0.1771 0.6288 -0.0698 0.8890 -0.3859 0.0068 0.0282 0.8693 Founding status, started -0.2398 0.4042 -0.7530 0.0346 -0.1524 0.6543 -0.9490 0.0362 -0.4458 0.0007 -0.6456 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.1890 0.3462 0.1855 0.3502 0.1494 0.3720 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 32 period of time. The main effect term for the year dummy 1998 was significant at the 13% level of significance. Therefore, this result should be viewed with caution. Similar results were found in analyzing the 2001 to 2007 information (Table 12). These households owning multiple small businesses had more wealth than households owning just one small business. Households owning small businesses had a lower probability of being in the highest 50% wealth bracket and had lower wealth in 2007 than in 2001. The interaction term was significant in the log wealth equation suggesting that households owning multiple small businesses appear to have fared better than other households owning just one small business in increasing their wealth over this period of time. Similar results were found in analyzing the 2004 to 2007 information (Table 13). Households owning multiple small businesses were more likely to be high wealth, to be in the highest 50% wealth bracket and to have more wealth than households owning just one small business. Households owning small businesses had somewhat lower mean log income and wealth in 2007 than in 2004. The interaction term is not statistically significant in any of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regressions suggest that households owning multiple small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as households owning just one small business from 2004 to 2007. Equity (fairness) considerations are important in assessing any subset of households. Over 47% of all income earned by households was earned by those in the top 10 %, while over 53% of all income earned by households owning a small business was earned by those in the top 33 Table 12 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -0.9118 0.1117 -5.4725 0.0001 0.5682 0.3820 -0.8844 0.3277 10.3998 0.0001 9.8827 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0232 0.9283 0.5311 0.0594 -0.0937 0.7560 -0.0272 0.9511 0.1242 0.2237 0.3626 0.0063 Year dummy, 2001 0.0123 0.9393 -0.1124 0.6058 0.2078 0.2511 -0.5000 0.0314 -0.1302 0.0471 -0.2071 0.0151 Interaction: multiple owner and 2001 0.6047 0.1115 1.3307 0.0013 0.5479 0.2474 1.2708 0.0504 0.2210 0.1245 0.7720 0.0001 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0103 0.1411 0.0339 0.0002 -0.0175 0.0258 0.0460 0.0001 -0.0063 0.0242 0.0386 0.0001 Gender - man -0.0474 0.8742 1.1805 0.0136 0.3215 0.2856 0.5191 0.1788 0.2070 0.0901 0.1866 0.2399 Race - minority 0.0868 0.6865 -0.5703 0.1195 0.0415 0.8643 -0.5126 0.0439 -0.1839 0.0363 -0.1339 0.2408 Education - no high school diploma -1.0497 0.0007 -1.8187 0.0028 -1.0151 0.0012 -0.0277 0.9487 -0.1610 0.2035 -0.1695 0.3031 Education - high school diploma -1.2393 0.0001 -1.4166 0.0001 -1.1730 0.0001 -0.4054 0.1251 -0.4422 0.0001 -0.4227 0.0001 Education - some college -0.6972 0.0005 -1.2259 0.0001 -0.6897 0.0034 -0.5602 0.0502 -0.2401 0.0036 -0.3592 0.0008 Marital status - married 0.9859 0.0001 -0.1936 0.4884 0.8035 0.0002 0.2415 0.3774 0.3259 0.0001 0.4265 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.5951 0.0003 1.1147 0.0001 0.6263 0.0032 0.9863 0.0008 0.3026 0.0001 0.7516 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.4898 0.0001 1.6983 0.0015 1.3790 0.0001 2.4580 0.0001 0.7648 0.0001 1.8279 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0207 0.0162 0.0395 0.0002 0.0134 0.1654 0.0355 0.0143 0.0134 0.0001 0.0196 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0176 0.6315 0.1317 0.1063 0.0423 0.6297 0.0110 0.8569 0.0027 0.1742 0.0026 0.3187 Organization, partnership -0.7683 0.0108 -0.2794 0.3644 -0.7227 0.0553 -1.3610 0.0165 -0.1737 0.1225 -0.5857 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.9407 0.0008 -1.0917 0.0002 -0.7452 0.0340 -1.5065 0.0054 -0.3391 0.0011 -0.8343 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.4034 0.2290 0.0941 0.7605 0.1481 0.7272 0.0266 0.9676 0.2032 0.0817 0.1960 0.1965 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.3840 0.1483 0.5961 0.1413 0.1705 0.5358 -0.2109 0.6095 0.4554 0.0001 -0.2083 0.1462 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.3983 0.1722 0.3046 0.4770 0.9911 0.0036 -1.0028 0.0229 0.7477 0.0001 -0.5319 0.0007 Industry, services and other 0.7134 0.0037 0.6115 0.0966 0.7927 0.0024 -0.3673 0.3478 0.7307 0.0001 -0.3576 0.0068 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1360 0.6787 -0.4121 0.2773 -0.2928 0.4542 0.2534 0.6331 -0.3840 0.0022 0.1144 0.4832 Founding status, started -0.1575 0.5965 -0.8853 0.0112 -0.4320 0.2312 -0.7239 0.1229 -0.3232 0.0045 -0.5987 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2093 0.3279 0.1954 0.3498 0.1803 0.3850 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 34 Table 13 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2004 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.9361 0.0013 -6.3077 0.0001 -0.4991 0.4397 -2.3632 0.0102 10.2616 0.0001 9.3716 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses 0.4849 0.1163 1.2401 0.0001 -0.2111 0.5374 1.4165 0.0175 0.0674 0.5520 0.8022 0.0001 Year dummy, 2007 -0.0097 0.9521 0.0961 0.6638 0.0542 0.7630 -0.3236 0.1351 -0.1244 0.0592 -0.1630 0.0555 Interaction: multiple owner and 2007 0.1092 0.7945 0.6823 0.1165 0.7419 0.1396 -0.0583 0.9395 0.2976 0.0539 0.3508 0.0785 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0095 0.1773 0.0298 0.0012 -0.0214 0.0055 0.0624 0.0001 -0.0060 0.0314 0.0438 0.0001 Gender - man 0.7133 0.0207 1.7371 0.0020 0.9053 0.0018 1.1208 0.0018 0.3972 0.0011 0.3516 0.0253 Race - minority -0.2750 0.1868 -0.7125 0.0469 -0.5291 0.0160 -0.2646 0.2909 -0.2480 0.0037 -0.0629 0.5686 Education - no high school diploma -1.3511 0.0001 -1.5888 0.0181 -1.0526 0.0011 -0.1723 0.6697 -0.3794 0.0052 -0.0221 0.8996 Education - high school diploma -1.2635 0.0001 -1.4669 0.0001 -0.6265 0.0026 0.1157 0.6648 -0.3857 0.0001 -0.2700 0.0068 Education - some college -0.7147 0.0005 -1.1444 0.0001 -0.4759 0.0441 -0.6270 0.0233 -0.4109 0.0001 -0.3677 0.0008 Marital status - married 1.0248 0.0001 -0.0953 0.7316 0.9481 0.0001 0.0715 0.7846 0.3457 0.0001 0.3685 0.0005 Owns Stocks 0.1106 0.5220 0.5743 0.0030 0.5603 0.0100 1.1332 0.0002 0.0879 0.2007 0.5445 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.3898 0.0001 2.4033 0.0006 1.1685 0.0001 2.5928 0.0001 0.6441 0.0001 2.0216 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0230 0.0106 0.0430 0.0001 0.0149 0.1319 0.0166 0.2394 0.0163 0.0001 0.0199 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0111 0.7206 0.1691 0.1026 0.0475 0.6787 0.0121 0.9087 0.0029 0.1640 0.0027 0.3093 Organization, partnership -0.2680 0.3635 -0.4976 0.1278 -0.3008 0.4166 -1.1089 0.0760 -0.1462 0.2117 -0.4560 0.0026 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6563 0.0173 -1.1436 0.0003 -0.5170 0.1410 -1.6653 0.0058 -0.2942 0.0081 -0.8465 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.8746 0.0113 0.4123 0.2157 1.0216 0.0320 -0.0120 0.9867 0.1899 0.1282 0.2105 0.1918 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.4086 0.1552 0.3645 0.4049 0.0438 0.8821 0.0977 0.8014 0.4561 0.0001 -0.4255 0.0053 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.8100 0.0079 -0.0822 0.8585 0.5769 0.0762 -0.4195 0.3093 0.7037 0.0001 -0.5160 0.0014 Industry, services and other 1.3206 0.0001 0.6944 0.0878 0.8771 0.0023 0.2960 0.4365 0.9226 0.0001 -0.3258 0.0245 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1081 0.7462 -0.4384 0.2521 0.3025 0.4014 -0.1891 0.7160 -0.3991 0.0018 -0.0346 0.8344 Founding status, started -0.3163 0.2942 -1.1610 0.0007 0.2390 0.4669 -1.2071 0.0096 -0.3415 0.0030 -0.6437 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2523 0.3685 0.2202 0.3788 0.1733 0.3962 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 35 10% (Table 14). The concentration of income in the top 10% bracket increased from 41.1% in 1998 to 47.1% in 2007 (a 14.5% increase) for all households, while the concentration of income in the top 10% bracket increased from 49.7% to 53.3% (a 7.3% increase) for households owning small businesses. The wealth story is somewhat different (Table 15). The concentration of wealth in the top 10% of households increased from 67.3% to 71.5% (a 6.3% increase), while the concentration of wealth in the top 10% of households owning small businesses declined from 66.3% to 64.8% (a 2.3% decrease). This suggests that firms in the lower wealth quintiles, especially in the 90th quintile, realized more wealth accumulation than firms in the top quintile. In order to explore the influence of debt held in mortgages and other debt secured by residential real estate, two additional control variables were added to the analyses in Tables 8 through Table 13: the log of debt in mortgages secured by residential real estate and log of debt held in other debt secured by residential real estate. Even though variables were statistically significant factors in predicting income and wealth, the addition of these variables did not change the most important results. See Appendix C for Tables 8.1 through Table 13.1. Conclusions This study is primarily concerned with changes in income and wealth of families owning and not owning small businesses from the late 1990s to 2007. Who were the winners and losers? This study utilizes cross-section data to assess changes in income and wealth of all households and families owning different types of businesses from 1998 to 2007. 36 Table 14 Income Deciles for All Households and Small Business Owner/Manager Households Decile 1998 2001 2004 2007 1998 2001 2004 2007 10% 0.0086 0.0094 0.0098 0.0099 0.0107 0.0117 0.0104 0.0091 20% 0.0209 0.0196 0.0211 0.0193 0.0235 0.0205 0.0200 0.0205 30% 0.0321 0.0298 0.0319 0.0289 0.0325 0.0278 0.0305 0.0291 40% 0.0443 0.0401 0.0424 0.0380 0.0374 0.0371 0.0377 0.0353 50% 0.0566 0.0517 0.0549 0.0490 0.0461 0.0493 0.0471 0.0430 60% 0.0719 0.0657 0.0688 0.0630 0.0591 0.0582 0.0583 0.0520 70% 0.0902 0.0834 0.0863 0.0800 0.0705 0.0721 0.0727 0.0620 80% 0.1135 0.1061 0.1099 0.1020 0.0873 0.0909 0.0969 0.0850 90% 0.1507 0.1429 0.1509 0.1390 0.1363 0.1424 0.1418 0.1310 100% 0.4112 0.4513 0.4240 0.4710 0.4966 0.4900 0.4846 0.5330 All Households Small Business Owner Manager Households Table 15 Net Worth Deciles for All Households and Small Business Owner/Manager Households Decile 1998 2001 2004 2007 1998 2001 2004 2007 10% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0028 0.0015 0.0011 20% 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0058 0.0070 0.0052 0.0049 30% 0.0036 0.0036 0.0031 0.0027 0.0106 0.0122 0.0098 0.0093 40% 0.0102 0.0090 0.0083 0.0079 0.0170 0.0190 0.0164 0.0139 50% 0.0201 0.0173 0.0163 0.0163 0.0249 0.0277 0.0232 0.0196 60% 0.0329 0.0285 0.0277 0.0279 0.0343 0.0367 0.0354 0.0317 70% 0.0502 0.0460 0.0440 0.0439 0.0498 0.0502 0.0478 0.0465 80% 0.0782 0.0755 0.0731 0.0670 0.0718 0.0800 0.0725 0.0764 90% 0.1312 0.1309 0.1343 0.1185 0.1218 0.1456 0.1396 0.1489 100% 0.6729 0.6885 0.6925 0.7152 0.6625 0.6188 0.6486 0.6477 All Households Small Business Owner Manager Households 37 While panel data would be preferred, the unit of observation is all families belonging to a specific group in each time period. Clearly, the economic pie increased in size during this period of time for households owning small businesses. However, the most important questions are the following: Did households owning small businesses make more financial gains in terms of changes in income and wealth than households not owning a business; and did households owning multiple small businesses make more financial gains than households owning just one small business? Another study completed by Haynes and Ou (2006) suggests that households owning small businesses, especially those owning only one small business, appear to have made smaller contributions to total wealth in 2001 than in the early 1990s. This evidence suggested that households owning only one small business seemed to be losing the race. They were making progress in increasing income and wealth, but they were making less progress than households not owning small businesses. This study suggests that the story changed significantly from the late 1990s through 2007. Households with and without small businesses have made very similar progress in increasing their income and wealth during a time of robust business activity. Households owning multiple small businesses appear to have accumulated wealth at somewhat faster rates than households owning just one small business. This result would suggest that the financial success of small business owners in one business is often leveraged into financial success in other business ventures. If public policy is targeting growth in gross domestic product, households owning multiple small businesses appear to have the most potential to grow the economy. 38 The proportion of households owning and managing at least one small business has been remarkably static over a relatively long period of time, with about 12% of households owning and managing a small business. From 1998 to 2007 the growth in the number of small businesses (19.4%) outpaced the growth in the number of households (13.2%). The largest share of growth occurred in households owning and managing one business, even though the high income and wealth growth was realized by households owning and managing two or more small businesses. With the relatively good financial success of households owning small businesses over the past decade, why haven’t more small businesses been started or expanded? The period of rapid economic expansion may have been a difficult time to start and nurture a new business and grow an existing small business venture for several reasons: (1) Labor costs increased. The unemployment rate remained around 4% starting in 1998, with some movement upward to over 6% in early 2003, and a fall back to the 4% to 4.5% range in 2006; hence, the labor supply was tight for most of the decade (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005). In this type of labor market, small business owners faced higher wages. In addition, small business owners may have faced substantial challenges finding and retaining high quality employees. (2) The opportunity cost of capital increased. Financial capital remained relatively expensive to borrow from 1998 through 2006, with rates ranging from 9.5% in 2000 to 4% in 2003 and 2004. While financial capital became less expensive to borrow from 2000 through 2004, rates steadily increased from late 2004 through 2006. Perhaps most important, the value 39 of the stock market (S&P 500) increased by over 4% annually from early 1998 through 2006. Investors, particularly family and friends who may have been willing to invest in a small business venture, had less risky alternatives for their excess cash. In this type of financial market, small business owners may have been facing higher costs of financing and restricted access, especially for start-up financing. (3) Other employment opportunities increased the opportunity cost of prospective owners. If higher inflation-adjusted net income and wealth are the only important criteria considered by the business owner, many of the family members owning a business may have been better off working for someone else. In a market with relatively low unemployment in a growing economy, the opportunity cost of risking one’s family’s financial resources in a small business venture increases substantially. In the current economy, reeling from the severe disruptions in the financial markets, unemployment rates have increased to over 10%, loosening the labor supply; the stock market has declined by over 30% since mid-2008 loosening financial capital; and other investment and employment opportunities for small business owners are much less plentiful. Based on this assessment, it must be a good time to start a business because good people can be hired and retained, money is available from traditional and nontraditional lenders for qualified borrowers and the opportunity cost of starting a business has declined. Perhaps it is a good time to start a new business because of the cost advantages realized in a recessionary economy. However, astute small business 40 owners contemplating starting or expanding a business will be most concerned about the depth of the recessionary trough, rather than whether financial capital is available. The results have some rather interesting public policy implications. If households owning small businesses are making similar financial progress to households not owning a business, then small business ownership may become a less attractive employment option because small business ownership is risky. Are additional incentives needed to encourage small business ownership? Recent changes in bankruptcy laws have removed part of the safety net for small business borrowers by making it more difficult for those with credit card debt to liquidate their assets in a Chapter 7 bankruptcy. With the emergence of more line-of-credit and credit-card-based lending by large banks to small businesses, this change in the bankruptcy law has had a significant impact on the strength of the safety net. Are other revisions in the bankruptcy law needed to provide a more secure safety net for small business owners (and their wealth)? What might be done to improve the financial performance of households owning a single small business? In general, households owning multiple small businesses outperform households owning a single small business for a host of reasons, including more experience, education and financial capital. Revising rules to allow more angel and venture capital for these small businesses might provide more financial capital. Small businesses are essentially relationship borrowers; hence, they may be adversely affected by further concentration in commercial banking and less relationship lending at the local level. Further work is needed to determine if large banks are interested in servicing small businesses. 41 A subset of small business owners, agricultural producers (farmers), are recipients of substantial subsidies provided by the 2008 Farm Bill and other legislation. Should some of these subsidy programs (such as revenue guarantees, price protection and production insurance) be extended to small businesses? Most important, small business owners as a group realized substantial gains in real income and wealth from 1998 to 2007, and they ran a very good race with other households not owning small businesses. Households owning at least one small business realized slightly lower increases in the probability of being high wealth than households not owning a small business. This result suggests that investments in small businesses realized lower financial returns thant investments in other assets. Even among small business owners, it appears that more of the growth in wealth was derived from ownership in publicly traded stocks and real estate than from the ownership of small businesses. Given these relatively modest differences in the aggregate gains in wealth between households with and without small businesses it should be no surprise that the number of households owning small businesses has remained quite stable. Further research utilizing high quality panel data is needed to compare the returns on business and other assets and assess the modest gains in income and wealth of smallbusiness-owning households during this time of robust economic growth. 42 References Azicorbe, A.M., Kennickell, A.B. and Moore, K.B. (2003). Recent changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Surveys of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 2003, 1-32. Bucks, B.K., Kennickell, A.B., Machs, T.L. and Moore, K.B. (2009). Changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2009, 1-56. Bucks, B.K., Kennickell, A.B. and Moore, K.B. (2006). Recent changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the 2001 and 2004 Surveys of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2006, 1-38. Haynes, G.W. (2005). Income and Wealth: How Did Households Owning Small Businesses Fare from 1992 to 2001? United States Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. Monograph for the U.S. Small Business Administration. Haynes, G.W. and Onochie, J.O. (2005). Is What's Good for the Business, Good for the Family: A Financial Assessment, in Exploring the family-business intersection with panel data: Past, present and future. United States Association of Small Business and Entrepreneurship/SBIDA 2005 Conference, Indian Wells, CA, January. Haynes, G.W. and Ou, C. (2006). How did households owning small businesses fare during the largest ever peacetime expansion in the U.S. economy, United States Association of Small Business and Entrepreneurship/SBIDA 2005 Conference Proceedings, Tucson, AZ, January. Haynes, G.W., & Avery, R. J. (1996). Family business: Can the family and the business finances be separated? Can the family and the business finances be separated? Preliminary results. Journal of Entrepreneurial and Small Business Finance, 5(1), 61- 74. Kennickell, A.B. & Starr-McCluer, M. (1997). Changes in family finances in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 1997, 1-24. Kennickell, A.B., Starr-McCluer, M. & Surette, B.J. (2000). Changes in family finances in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 2000, 1-29. Lopez, R. (1986). Structural models of the farm household that allow for interdependent utility and profit maximization decisions. In: I. Singh, L. Squire and J. Straus (eds). Agricultural household models: Extensions, applications and policy. Baltimore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 306-325. 43 Wolff, E.N. (1998). Recent trends in the size distribution of household wealth, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(3), 131-150. Xaio, J.J., M.J. Alhabeeb, G.S. Hong and G.W. Haynes. Risk Tolerance of Business Owning Families, American Council on Consumer Interests, March 2000. 44 Appendix A Table 4.1 Median Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 42,601 46,895 47,374 47,305 0.110 0.009 -0.001 No business ownership 38,729 42,085 43,991 41,135 0.062 -0.023 -0.065 Any business ownership 71,002 92,587 84,597 90,496 0.275 -0.023 0.070 Small business 69,712 90,182 84,597 86,383 0.239 -0.042 0.021 single business only 67,130 86,575 75,573 81,241 0.210 -0.062 0.075 multiple businesses 73,584 102,207 147,763 145,000 0.971 0.419 -0.019 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) 45 Appendix B Table 5.1 Median Wealth, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 93,986 102,690 102,085 121,900 0.297 0.187 0.194 No business ownership 76,098 79,825 79,571 91,030 0.196 0.140 0.144 Any business ownership 363,111 494,037 506,317 504,140 0.388 0.020 -0.004 Small business 348,088 475,557 474,918 459,000 0.319 -0.035 -0.034 single business only 314,986 434,388 363,223 381,400 0.211 -0.122 0.050 multiple businesses 578,279 977,325 1,327,324 1,816,000 2.140 0.858 0.368 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) 46 Appendix C Table 8.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 1998 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.9197 0.0001 -8.7466 0.0001 -0.6487 0.0001 -4.4458 0.0001 10.0890 0.0001 5.2582 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.2442 0.0378 1.5130 0.0001 0.3549 0.0066 1.4113 0.0001 0.1317 0.0224 1.1978 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.2062 0.0019 0.6480 0.0001 -0.2215 0.0002 -0.1859 0.0052 0.1883 0.0001 0.0880 0.1671 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.2458 0.1323 0.1425 0.5706 0.1726 0.3440 0.0434 0.8395 -0.0590 0.4440 0.0086 0.9626 Age of owner manager -0.0041 0.0764 0.0400 0.0001 -0.0119 0.0001 0.0496 0.0001 -0.0018 0.0344 0.0479 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8612 0.0001 0.7069 0.0034 0.9558 0.0001 0.4886 0.0001 0.3480 0.0001 0.6478 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2738 0.0006 -0.7280 0.0009 -0.2365 0.0005 -0.3993 0.0001 -0.1889 0.0001 -0.4163 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.2495 0.0001 -1.9698 0.0001 -2.1069 0.0001 -1.6864 0.0001 -0.8672 0.0001 -1.1818 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4599 0.0001 -1.7416 0.0001 -1.2832 0.0001 -1.0457 0.0001 -0.5155 0.0001 -0.3659 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8705 0.0001 -1.3039 0.0001 -0.8503 0.0001 -0.6937 0.0001 -0.3873 0.0001 -0.5152 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0903 0.0001 0.1068 0.5396 0.7546 0.0001 0.3861 0.0001 0.3862 0.0001 0.2233 0.0054 Owns Stocks 0.8120 0.0001 1.3568 0.0001 0.8544 0.0001 1.2543 0.0001 0.3286 0.0001 1.0583 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.0828 0.0001 2.6239 0.0001 0.7890 0.0001 3.4944 0.0001 0.3402 0.0001 3.5860 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0740 0.0001 -0.0210 0.0976 0.0916 0.0001 -0.0796 0.0001 0.0286 0.0001 -0.0019 0.7974 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0688 0.0001 0.1196 0.0001 0.0623 0.0001 0.0435 0.0014 0.02952 0.0001 0.04911 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3432 0.3739 0.3339 0.4639 0.2886 0.4708 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 47 Table 9.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.4722 0.0001 -8.1516 0.0001 -0.7859 0.0001 -4.4250 0.0001 10.3124 0.0001 5.5759 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.5014 0.0001 1.9775 0.0001 0.3047 0.0153 1.8569 0.0001 0.2558 0.0001 1.2616 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 -0.0210 0.7458 0.4008 0.0051 -0.0719 0.2236 -0.0437 0.5094 0.0273 0.2101 -0.0493 0.4236 Interaction: small business and 1998 -0.0226 0.8884 -0.2817 0.2135 0.2123 0.2365 -0.4277 0.0564 -0.1580 0.0106 -0.1064 0.5425 Age of owner manager -0.0093 0.0001 0.0448 0.0001 -0.0145 0.0001 0.0469 0.0001 -0.0034 0.0001 0.0467 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8844 0.0001 0.3877 0.0956 0.9939 0.0001 0.3593 0.0002 0.2957 0.0001 0.5864 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2524 0.0011 -0.8504 0.0001 -0.1914 0.0048 -0.3951 0.0001 -0.1257 0.0001 -0.5133 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.0228 0.0001 -2.0315 0.0001 -2.2371 0.0001 -1.8112 0.0001 -0.8086 0.0001 -1.4078 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4165 0.0001 -1.8199 0.0001 -1.2682 0.0001 -1.0628 0.0001 -0.4774 0.0001 -0.4808 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8221 0.0001 -1.2545 0.0001 -0.7778 0.0001 -0.7081 0.0001 -0.3170 0.0001 -0.5349 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0140 0.0001 0.3614 0.0365 0.8129 0.0001 0.4294 0.0001 0.3720 0.0001 0.3633 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.8361 0.0001 1.4018 0.0001 0.8200 0.0001 1.2336 0.0001 0.3588 0.0001 0.9274 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.1222 0.0001 2.0563 0.0001 0.9499 0.0001 3.5598 0.0001 0.3864 0.0001 3.5594 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0719 0.0001 -0.0223 0.0566 0.0800 0.0001 -0.0793 0.0001 0.0239 0.0001 -0.0046 0.5197 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0830 0.0001 0.1247 0.0001 0.0613 0.0001 0.0753 0.0001 0.0318 0.0001 0.0626 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3471 0.3828 0.3459 0.4745 0.3622 0.4888 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 48 Table 10.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2004 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.8709 0.0001 -8.8369 0.0001 -0.8444 0.0001 -5.1231 0.0001 10.2061 0.0001 5.1091 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.6025 0.0001 1.6845 0.0001 0.3435 0.0064 1.7591 0.0001 0.1919 0.0001 1.2680 0.0001 Year dummy, 2004 0.1189 0.0682 0.2760 0.0455 -0.0733 0.2134 0.0178 0.7888 0.0348 0.1132 0.0146 0.8079 Interaction: small business and 2004 -0.1302 0.4234 -0.0123 0.9569 0.1619 0.3688 -0.3051 0.1645 -0.0961 0.1239 -0.1119 0.5132 Age of owner manager -0.0061 0.0057 0.0421 0.0001 -0.0131 0.0001 0.0505 0.0001 -0.0018 0.0092 0.0469 0.0001 Gender - man 1.0409 0.0001 0.5514 0.0140 0.9000 0.0001 0.5194 0.0001 0.3060 0.0001 0.8288 0.0001 Race - minority -0.1974 0.0100 -0.7340 0.0003 -0.1496 0.0250 -0.2148 0.0045 -0.1052 0.0001 -0.3255 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.3266 0.0001 -1.6489 0.0001 -2.2695 0.0001 -1.7472 0.0001 -0.7769 0.0001 -1.0683 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.5275 0.0001 -1.9163 0.0001 -1.3288 0.0001 -0.9864 0.0001 -0.4812 0.0001 -0.2557 0.0004 Education - some college -0.9403 0.0001 -1.2083 0.0001 -0.8427 0.0001 -0.7693 0.0001 -0.3598 0.0001 -0.4844 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0653 0.0001 0.3499 0.0314 1.0129 0.0001 0.3707 0.0001 0.4179 0.0001 0.1134 0.1312 Owns Stocks 0.8365 0.0001 1.3345 0.0001 0.9256 0.0001 1.3034 0.0001 0.3260 0.0001 1.0084 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.2090 0.0001 2.9691 0.0001 0.9979 0.0001 3.8417 0.0001 0.3828 0.0001 3.7581 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0614 0.0001 -0.0292 0.0114 0.0691 0.0001 -0.0726 0.0001 0.0226 0.0001 -0.0012 0.8654 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0860 0.0001 0.1323 0.0001 0.0707 0.0001 0.0828 0.0001 0.0351 0.0001 0.0723 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3605 0.3856 0.3533 0.4865 0.3502 0.4977 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 49 Table 11.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 1998 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.7433 0.0031 -6.5510 0.0001 -0.1080 0.8742 -1.7255 0.0574 9.8813 0.0001 9.5429 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0724 0.7861 1.3907 0.0001 0.4327 0.1948 1.2678 0.0062 0.2671 0.0342 0.7287 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.3383 0.0374 0.7881 0.0022 -0.0057 0.9758 -0.1477 0.5068 0.1223 0.1147 0.1408 0.1300 Interaction: multiple owner and 1998 0.6243 0.1077 0.3210 0.4935 0.1338 0.7902 -0.1093 0.8687 0.0664 0.7037 0.3335 0.1112 Owner Charateristics Age of owner manager -0.0081 0.2672 0.0209 0.0435 -0.0162 0.0492 0.0565 0.0001 -0.0024 0.4892 0.0322 0.0001 Gender - man 0.2749 0.3685 1.3959 0.0135 1.0611 0.0007 0.6925 0.0603 0.3733 0.0086 0.3815 0.0251 Race - minority -0.0469 0.8280 -0.8793 0.0328 -0.1362 0.5722 -0.2761 0.2955 -0.1649 0.1088 -0.1311 0.2877 Education - no high school diploma -1.3276 0.0001 -1.0919 0.1013 -1.0687 0.0006 -0.2037 0.6071 -0.3780 0.0111 -0.3019 0.0907 Education - high school diploma -0.9940 0.0001 -0.9997 0.0012 -0.8889 0.0001 -0.2546 0.3307 -0.4079 0.0001 -0.2480 0.0230 Education - some college -0.8063 0.0001 -1.0801 0.0005 -0.6639 0.0041 -0.6858 0.0114 -0.3794 0.0001 -0.3114 0.0055 Marital status - married 0.8438 0.0001 -0.1789 0.5431 0.3149 0.1573 0.1296 0.6185 0.1805 0.0553 0.1745 0.1224 Owns Stocks 0.2529 0.1316 0.6073 0.0041 0.5847 0.0091 1.2530 0.0001 0.1342 0.0898 0.7447 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 0.7633 0.0052 2.4663 0.0021 0.7570 0.0041 2.9601 0.0001 0.5286 0.0001 2.1421 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0324 0.0578 -0.0210 0.3402 0.0395 0.0412 -0.0750 0.0202 0.0101 0.2030 -0.0125 0.1894 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0684 0.0012 0.1000 0.0001 0.0259 0.3398 0.0736 0.0551 0.0248 0.0052 0.0510 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0250 0.0047 0.0462 0.0001 0.0168 0.0968 0.0247 0.0879 0.0121 0.0031 0.0225 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0185 0.5865 0.1164 0.1332 0.0115 0.8174 0.0127 0.8736 0.0006 0.5149 0.0012 0.2413 Organization, partnership -0.6705 0.0181 -0.4112 0.2247 -0.6602 0.1004 -0.9698 0.0619 -0.4057 0.0019 -0.6408 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.5872 0.0258 -1.1995 0.0002 -0.6722 0.0789 -1.1489 0.0208 -0.3432 0.0046 -0.7272 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporatio 0.2978 0.3446 -0.2613 0.4431 0.6124 0.2140 0.0194 0.9738 0.2008 0.1472 -0.0616 0.7109 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.8311 0.0044 0.3616 0.4264 0.5311 0.0677 -0.1366 0.7529 0.9223 0.0001 -0.3151 0.0500 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.7025 0.0229 -0.0079 0.9874 0.6302 0.0499 -1.1247 0.0138 0.9823 0.0001 -0.5443 0.0017 Industry, services and other 1.2340 0.0001 0.8265 0.0476 1.2170 0.0001 -0.3650 0.3846 1.1753 0.0001 -0.1921 0.2044 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1637 0.6042 -0.4828 0.2291 0.0920 0.8041 -0.0425 0.9325 -0.4142 0.0038 0.0098 0.9545 Founding status, started -0.3048 0.2954 -0.7883 0.0304 -0.2312 0.5032 -0.9446 0.0373 -0.4665 0.0004 -0.6562 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.1993 0.3669 0.1900 0.3619 0.1523 0.3782 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 50 Table 12.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.0016 0.0836 -5.3718 0.0001 0.5041 0.4411 -0.7263 0.4259 10.4298 0.0001 9.9320 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0539 0.8363 0.5137 0.0742 -0.1150 0.7044 -0.0183 0.9670 0.1202 0.2382 0.3539 0.0074 Year dummy, 2001 -0.0837 0.6097 -0.1666 0.4563 0.1315 0.4748 -0.5105 0.0298 -0.1432 0.0303 -0.2366 0.0058 Interaction: multiple owner and 2001 0.5815 0.1317 1.1608 0.0062 0.5293 0.2680 1.1408 0.0798 0.1789 0.2152 0.6894 0.0002 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0055 0.4522 0.0302 0.0015 -0.0142 0.0787 0.0453 0.0001 -0.0066 0.0228 0.0385 0.0001 Gender - man -0.0617 0.8378 1.1880 0.0157 0.3082 0.3085 0.5006 0.1970 0.1967 0.1069 0.1655 0.2953 Race - minority 0.0701 0.7477 -0.7047 0.0595 0.0291 0.9051 -0.5822 0.0239 -0.2013 0.0220 -0.1676 0.1412 Education - no high school diploma -0.9344 0.0025 -1.7572 0.0040 -0.9474 0.0024 -0.0099 0.9820 -0.1393 0.2725 -0.1220 0.4586 Education - high school diploma -1.2255 0.0001 -1.3403 0.0001 -1.1666 0.0001 -0.3578 0.1769 -0.4253 0.0001 -0.3890 0.0001 Education - some college -0.6819 0.0008 -1.2150 0.0001 -0.6808 0.0041 -0.5390 0.0605 -0.2303 0.0052 -0.3393 0.0015 Marital status - married 0.9692 0.0001 -0.1477 0.6096 0.7817 0.0003 0.2371 0.3882 0.3281 0.0001 0.4293 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.6045 0.0003 1.1160 0.0001 0.6311 0.0031 1.0057 0.0006 0.2991 0.0001 0.7451 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.0188 0.0003 1.8869 0.0010 1.0680 0.0001 2.7340 0.0001 0.7642 0.0001 1.8019 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0443 0.0075 -0.0372 0.0617 0.0308 0.0989 -0.0393 0.1970 -0.0034 0.6015 -0.0040 0.6365 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0651 0.0043 0.0993 0.0001 0.0606 0.0460 0.0799 0.0604 0.0241 0.0021 0.0487 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0214 0.0139 0.0385 0.0003 0.0135 0.1646 0.0333 0.0219 0.0130 0.0001 0.0189 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0180 0.6269 0.1484 0.0861 0.0420 0.6277 0.0093 0.8693 0.0028 0.1589 0.0027 0.2828 Organization, partnership -0.7884 0.0093 -0.2387 0.4436 -0.7289 0.0538 -1.3228 0.0197 -0.1692 0.1321 -0.5772 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.9349 0.0009 -1.1182 0.0001 -0.7306 0.0380 -1.4814 0.0062 -0.3370 0.0012 -0.8296 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporatio 0.3338 0.3228 0.0085 0.9784 0.0925 0.8280 0.0370 0.9551 0.1825 0.1183 0.1527 0.3133 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.3268 0.2242 0.7095 0.0896 0.1399 0.6137 -0.2473 0.5603 0.4589 0.0001 -0.2044 0.1528 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.3743 0.2042 0.3991 0.3666 0.9905 0.0037 -1.0321 0.0229 0.7555 0.0001 -0.5179 0.0010 Industry, services and other 0.6615 0.0080 0.7476 0.0488 0.7647 0.0036 -0.4126 0.3072 0.7403 0.0001 -0.3417 0.0096 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.0826 0.8030 -0.4474 0.2516 -0.3472 0.3760 0.2126 0.6895 -0.3953 0.0016 0.0905 0.5775 Founding status, started -0.2150 0.4755 -0.9307 0.0095 -0.4838 0.1820 -0.7615 0.1053 -0.3339 0.0033 -0.6210 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2201 0.3485 0.2014 0.3560 0.1830 0.3906 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth 51 Table 13.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2004 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.1083 0.0005 -6.2488 0.0001 -0.6058 0.3529 -2.1149 0.0234 10.2881 0.0001 9.3766 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses 0.5243 0.0940 1.2449 0.0001 -0.1815 0.5985 1.4125 0.0171 0.0617 0.5859 0.7945 0.0001 Year dummy, 2007 -0.0403 0.8036 0.0753 0.7375 0.0458 0.7991 -0.3268 0.1332 -0.1277 0.0526 -0.1748 0.0392 Interaction: multiple owner and 2007 0.0379 0.9290 0.5104 0.2511 0.6991 0.1663 -0.1601 0.8346 0.2626 0.0895 0.2719 0.1717 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0054 0.4561 0.0289 0.0033 -0.0195 0.0125 0.0620 0.0001 -0.0062 0.0308 0.0444 0.0001 Gender - man 0.7247 0.0190 1.6785 0.0030 0.9137 0.0016 1.1228 0.0020 0.3875 0.0014 0.3327 0.0334 Race - minority -0.2804 0.1826 -0.7802 0.0325 -0.5205 0.0185 -0.3386 0.1811 -0.2608 0.0023 -0.0851 0.4392 Education - no high school diploma -1.2262 0.0002 -1.4542 0.0330 -0.9908 0.0022 -0.1942 0.6375 -0.3552 0.0092 0.0487 0.7814 Education - high school diploma -1.2802 0.0001 -1.3730 0.0001 -0.6324 0.0025 0.1265 0.6348 -0.3719 0.0001 -0.2436 0.0144 Education - some college -0.7132 0.0006 -1.1355 0.0001 -0.4808 0.0429 -0.5906 0.0338 -0.3976 0.0001 -0.3414 0.0018 Marital status - married 1.0385 0.0001 -0.0204 0.9431 0.9478 0.0001 0.0580 0.8261 0.3547 0.0001 0.3847 0.0003 Owns Stocks 0.1282 0.4635 0.5579 0.0047 0.5791 0.0083 1.1192 0.0003 0.0818 0.2344 0.5374 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 0.9406 0.0009 2.3597 0.0011 0.9366 0.0005 2.9458 0.0001 0.6356 0.0001 1.9130 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0415 0.0188 -0.0109 0.6047 0.0241 0.2212 -0.0443 0.1602 -0.0025 0.7165 0.0044 0.6228 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0503 0.0169 0.0904 0.0001 0.0197 0.4333 0.0539 0.1294 0.0217 0.0043 0.0491 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0240 0.0083 0.0427 0.0001 0.0156 0.1162 0.0123 0.3876 0.0157 0.0001 0.0190 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0102 0.7344 0.1936 0.0749 0.0444 0.6944 0.0101 0.9165 0.0029 0.1534 0.0028 0.2822 Organization, partnership -0.2964 0.3180 -0.5088 0.1250 -0.3171 0.3934 -1.1158 0.0733 -0.1474 0.2075 -0.4651 0.0020 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6648 0.0164 -1.2002 0.0002 -0.5201 0.1397 -1.6922 0.0049 -0.2984 0.0072 -0.8566 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.7971 0.0219 0.3118 0.3574 0.9870 0.0390 -0.0379 0.9581 0.1637 0.1910 0.1421 0.3776 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.4021 0.1641 0.3608 0.4149 0.0559 0.8501 0.0171 0.9659 0.4497 0.0001 -0.4343 0.0043 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.8296 0.0067 -0.0849 0.8555 0.5908 0.0689 -0.4957 0.2405 0.7017 0.0001 -0.5139 0.0014 Industry, services and other 1.3123 0.0001 0.7225 0.0791 0.8828 0.0021 0.2188 0.5756 0.9202 0.0001 -0.3306 0.0218 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.0359 0.9153 -0.4232 0.2807 0.2637 0.4657 -0.2077 0.6910 -0.4036 0.0016 -0.0505 0.7591 Founding status, started -0.3654 0.2322 -1.1865 0.0008 0.2132 0.5175 -1.2583 0.0074 -0.3467 0.0025 -0.6572 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2603 0.3841 0.2218 0.3837 0.1755 0.4023 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth
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# I ncome and Wealth: How Did Households Owning Small Businesses Fare from 1998 to 2007 by # George W. Haynes, Ph.D. Montana State University Bozeman, MT 59717 for Under contract no. SBAHQ -08-M-0454 Release Date: January 2010 This report was developed under a contract with the Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy, and contains information and analysis that was reviewed and edited by officials of the Office of Advocacy. However, the final conclusions of the report do no t necessarily reflect the views of the Office of Advocacy. ## 2 # Contents Introduction 3 Literature Review 4 Conceptual Considerations 7 Empirical Considerations 8 Results 16 Conclusions 35 References 42 Appendix A 44 Appendix B 45 Appendix C 46 ## 3 Introduction The general economic expansion earlier in this decade dramatically increased the wealth of some individuals while leaving others with less modest increases, or decreases, in wealth. While there i s ample discussion of the growth of businesses in the United States over the past 30 years, there is very limited knowledge about the owners (individuals or households) of privately held businesses . The public debate about wealth distribution and income inequality centered around the divide between the rich and the poor or the wealthy and the poverty - stricken, rather than th e difference between th ose w h o owned and/or operated businesses versus th ose who worked for others and the unemployed. This study examines changes in the distributions of income and wealth for three primary types of households: households not owning a business, households owning and managing only one small business (single business owners) , and households owning and managing at least one small business and owning other businesses (multiple business owners). Using this classification of households (an d business owners) and the Surveys of Consumer Finance s from 1998 to 2007, this study assesses changes in the income earned and wealth accumulated by different types of small businesses from 1998 to 2007. Using the Board of Governors of the Federal Reser ve’s Survey of Consumer Finances, this study examines two important questions: ( 1) Did families with small business owners living in the household increase their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 19 98 to 200 7 ? ## 4 ( 2) Did families with more than one small business increase their income and wealth by more than other families owning small businesses from 1998 to 2007? Literature Review The financial situation of U.S. families changed substantially between the early 1990s and 200 7 . The literature review examines relevant literature assessing changes in the income and wealth of U.S. families. Special attention is given to evidence o f changes in the income and wealth of U.S. families who own one or more small businesses. A relatively comprehensive literature exists on the financial condition (income and wealth) of families, but the literature is much less comprehensive for th e subset o f families who own businesses. The Federal Reserve Board assesses recent changes in U.S. family finances every three years when summarizing results derived from the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances ( Kennickell and Starr - McCluer, 1997; Kennickell, St arr McCluer and Surette, 2000; Aizcorbe, Kennickell and Moore, 2003; Bucks, Kennickell and Moore, 2006 ; Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore, 2009 ). Between 1992 and 1995, real mean and median family income increased slightly, although not sufficiently to of fset the declines from 1989 to 1992 (Kennickell and Starr McCluer, 1997). By 1995, median income and wealth were nearly the same as in 1989 ; however , mean income and wealth had not fully recovered. This period of time from 1992 through 1995 was one of cont inued economic expansion in the U.S. economy. By 1998, real mean and median family income had surpassed their 1989 levels, having exhibited strong growth between 1995 and 1998. This period was marked by an increase ## 5 in the holding of stock equity and a boom ing stock market (Kennickell, Starr - McCluer and Surette, 2000). While family indebtedness increased over this period of time, asset growth was more rapid. By 1998, the economy was in the seventh year of an economic expansion. Civil ian unemployment was arou nd 4.5% and the aver age annual inflation rate of 2.2% , as measured by the consumer price index, had been low for the previous three years. Mean and median family income continued to grow from 1998 through 2001 with the fastest growth occurring among higher income households (Azicorbe, Kennickell and Moore, 2003). The Survey of Consumer Finances shows that the median value of real family income continued to trend upward, while the mean value of real family income actually declined from 2001 to 2004 (Bucks, K ennickell and Moore, 2006). This result may suggest distributional changes within the groups. The authors suggest that three important shifts occurred during this time: (1) house values appreciated and homeownership increased; (2) prices in the equity mark et generally recovered; and (3) the debt to asset ratio increased. The most recent Survey of Consumer Finances suggests that the median value of real family income before taxes was unchanged from 2004 to 2007 , while both median and mean net worth increased (Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore, 2009). The increase in the share of total assets attributed to unrealized capital gains were especially important from 2004 to 2007. The share of unrealized capital gains in total assets rose from 5.1% to nearly 36% fro m 2004 to 2007. While no other authors addressed small business owners, Wolff (1998) argued that “. . . small business equity, which tends to move with stock prices, is also highly ## 6 concentrated among the rich.” While small business owners may have realized an increase in the value of their assets with the increase in the stock market, other evidence suggests that small business owners h old more debt than non - business - owning families (Haynes and Avery, 1996). In addition, recent research suggests that small business owners are willing to assume more risk and hold more risky portfolios of assets (Xaio, Alhabeeb, Hong and Haynes, 2001). Thus, whether or not families owning small businesses improved their financial status between 1989 and 2004 is an open questio n. This study examines changes in the real income and wealth of families owning small businesses to determine whether they ha d higher mean income and wealth and increasing or decreasing shares of total income and wealth from 1989 to 2004. Another study completed by Haynes (200 5 ) suggests that households owning small businesses, especially those owning only one small business, appear to have made smaller contributions to total wealth in 2001 than in the early 1990s. Th e evidence suggested that households owning only one small business seemed to be losing the race. They were making progress in increasing income and wealth, but they were making less progress than households not owning small businesses. A more recent study provides further evidence that compared with other households, those with small businesses made less progress in increasing their wealth and very similar progress in increasing their income in the late 1980s, a time of robust business activity, and early 2 000s, a t ime of recovery for businesses (Haynes and Ou , 200 6 ). However, an examination of data from 1992, a year of recovery, through 2004, another year of recovery, indicated that households owning small businesses appear ed to have progressed at about the same rate as other households. ## 7 A sharp downturn in the stock market occurred in the second quarter of 2000 putting downward pressure on the income and wealth of many households. Financial prosperity in the 1990s was primarily dependent upon the rise of t he stock markets. The 2004 and 2007 SCFs capture this downturn in the stock market and enable a comparison of the financial success of small - business - owning families and other families in a time when the influence of the stock market changed substantially. On one hand, the lower expected returns in the stock market should have encourage d investors to shift money to business development. On the other hand, the downturn in the stock market substantially reduced the wealth of some investors and limited their a bility to invest in other ventures. Thus, whether or not families owning small businesses improved their financial status by 2007 is an open question. This study examines changes in the real income and wealth of families owning small businesses to determin e if they ha d higher mean and median income and wealth and increasing or decreasing shares of total income and wealth from 1998 to 2007. Conceptual Considerations This study utilizes a household decision - making model to assess the success of small busines ses, as measured by changes in income and wealth. While most other studies of small business success utilize the profit function, this study utilizes household income and wealth to assess the success of business - owning households. This strategy for address ing small business issues was originally suggested by Lopez (1986) in the following statement: “ . . . the financial resources of the small firm are arguably intertwined with those of the household. This interdependence of resources suggests a theoretical model, ## 8 where the small business activity is integrated into the household utility maximization model.” This conceptual model maximizes household utility subject to time and budget constraints, where the business’s profit function is embedded in the budget constraint. Recent work by Haynes and Onochie (2005) suggests that increases in the available cash in the business (from higher gross sales or net profits) bring more cash into the household, while only increases in the value of business (wealth) increase the amount of money spent on other household assets. Interestingly, these business financial indicators were not associated with measures of general well - being in the household. In general, this mo del suggests that invoking the weak separability assumption and treating the business profit function in isolation fails to recognize the intermingling of resources between the business and household. This study recognizes the importance of the intermingli ng of resources and examines two hypotheses: (1) Families with small business owners living in the household increased their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 1998 to 2007 ; and (2) Families w ith more than one small business increased their income and wealth by more than other families owning one small business from 1998 to 2007 . Empirical Considerations This section summarizes the data from the 19 98 and 200 7 Surveys of Consumer Finances and presents the statistical models employed. While this is primarily a descriptive study of small businesses in two time periods, it employs multivariate logistic and linear ## 9 regression models to assess the determinants of high income and wealth among househo lds owning small businesses. Data The 19 98 through 200 7 Surveys of Consumer Finances (SCF) were conducted for the Federal Reserve Board by the National Opinion Research Center at the University of Chicago. The surveys are designed to supply detailed and reliable information on balance sheets, use of financial services, pensions, labor force participation, cash income and demographic characteristics of U.S. households. The SCF utilizes a dual frame sample to provide adequate coverage of the population. On e frame is a multistage area probability sample, which provides adequate coverage of widely held assets and liabilities. The second frame is a list design employed to over - sample relatively wealthy households. Response rates for the area probability and li st samples in 19 98 and 200 7 were approximately 70 % and 30 % , respectively. Research conducted by the Federal Reserve B oard suggests that nonresponse is positively correlated with wealth. This study is primarily interested in examining small business - owning families. However, the entire sample is employed to assess the differences between business - owning and non - business - owning families. The SCF survey asks respondents about the previous year ; hence , the SCF for 2007 actually gathers information about the finances of the family and business in 2006. The variables of interest in this study include business ownership status of the household, household income and household wealth (including assets and de bt held by members of the household). Business ownership status was determined by whether an ## 10 individual owned and/or actively managed at least one business. Households owning large businesses (500 or more employees) and household s with only investors (owne r s , but not managers) were not included in this study. Small business owners are separated into two categories: single business owners, who own and manage only one business , and multiple business owners, who own and manage at least one small business and o wn (and possibly manage) other businesses. Financial data, such as income and wealth data, often have a substantial percentage of missing values. The SCF is a fully imputed data set with five separate implicates available for every missing value. This stud y utilizes only one implicate in the SCF. Household income and wealth were computed using all of the financial information reported in the SCF. Household income is computed by summing the following sources of income: wages and salaries, interest, dividends , asset sales, rents, unemployment, child support, welfare, social security and other sources. The wealth of the household was determined by generating a balance sheet, using a program supplied by the Federal Reserve Board, to estimate the wealth of each h ousehold. Total wealth was computed by subtracting total liabilities from total financial and nonfinancial assets. Financial assets were computed by summing the value of transaction accounts, certificates of deposit, directly held mutual funds, stocks, bon ds, individual retirement accounts, saving bonds, cash value of life insurance, other managed assets and other financial assets. Nonfinancial assets were computed by summing the value of vehicles, primary residence, other residential real estate, equity in nonresidential real estate, business interests and other nonfinancial assets. Liabilities were tabulated by summing the value of housing debt, ## 11 other lines of credit, debt for other residential property, credit cards, installment loans and other debts. Thi s study will discuss the changes in income from 19 98 to the most recent data collected in 200 7 . All income figures have been adjusted to 200 7 dollars using the current Consumer Price Index (CPI) as employed by Bucks, Kennickell, Mach and Moore (2009 ). Co ntrol variables include personal and demographic characteristics of the household head and business owner, and characteristics of the business. The personal and demographic characteristics include age, race (White, Black, Hispanic and other), gender, educa tion (no high school diploma, high school diploma, some college and college degree or more), marital status (married, previously married or never married) and public stock and real estate ownership (yes or no). B usiness characteristics include number of em ployees, age of the firm, legal organization, industrial classification and founding strategy. The sampling frame for this analysis is U.S. households, which are referred to as families in this report. Personal and demographic characteristics are those ch aracteristics of the respondent interviewed, typically the household head. If the respondent or someone in the household owns and manages a business, this study is referring to the largest business. No business information is available for businesses owned but not managed by the respondent. Small businesses are businesses with fewer than 500 employees that are owned and managed by a family member. This study has not differentiated between franchise and nonfranchise businesses. ## 12 Models This study is primaril y descriptive, where family income and wealth are compared for business - owning and non - b usiness - owning families from 1998 to 200 7 . This descriptive analysis requires the careful comparison of means using regression analysis to assess differences among business and non - business - owning families across time (19 98 through 200 7 ). The most important questions assessed in this study are the following: (1) Did families with small business owners living in the household increase their income and wealth by more than families without small business owners living in the household from 1998 to 2007 ? (2) Did families with more than one small business increase their income and wealth by more than other families owning small businesses from 1998 to 2007 ? Logistic and linear regression models are used to examine these two questions for t hree time periods, 19 98 to 200 7, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 200 7 . The first set of models utilizes dummy variables for the year 2007 and households with a small business to determine whet her households owning a small business fared better from 1998 to 2007 than other households. The variables of interest are the main effects on the dummy variables (year 2007 and small business) and the interaction term. To be consistent with previous studi es, high income and wealth are based on levels established in 1992, where high income was income over $50,000 per year and high wealth was net worth over $1 million in 1992 dollars. When these 1992 levels are adjusted for inflation, high income is $73,779 and high wealth is $1.476 million in 2007 dollars. Six separate models are used in this study: (1) logistic regression model to examine the probability of being high income; (2) logistic regression model to examine ## 13 the probability of being high wealth, whe re high wealth is holding $1 million in 1992 dollars; (3) logistic regression model to examine the probability of being high income, where hig h income is being in the top 50% of income earners; (4) logistic regression model to examine the probability of be ing high wealth, where hig h wealth is being in the top 50% of wealth holders; (5) linear regression model utilizing log of household income as the dependent variable; and (6) linear regression model utilizing log of household wealth as the dependent variab le. The six models are specified as follows: HI = f( SB, Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HI = high income (1=greater than $ 73,779 in 2007$) SB = household with a small business dummy variable; Y0 7 = year dummy variable for 200 7 ; age = age of the household head ; race = race of the household head ( 1=minority, 0=otherwise ); gen der = gender of household head (1=male, 0=female ); education = education level (categorical variables for some high school, high school graduate, some college, college graduate); marital status = marital status ( 1=married, 0=unmarried ); stock ownership = owns publicly traded stock ( 1= yes, 0= no); and real estate ownership = owns real estate ( 1=yes, 0=no ). HW = f( SB , Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership ) where HW = high wealth (1= greater than $ $1.476 in 2007$ ) all other variables are the same as above. HI50 = f(SB, Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, educa tion, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership) where HI 50 = high income (1=top 50% of income earners) all other variables are the same as above. HW50 = f(SB, Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, rea l estate ownership) where HW 50 = high wealth (1=top 50% of wealth holders) all other variables are the same as above. Log income = f( SB, Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership ) ## 14 Log wealth = f( SB, Y0 7 , SB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership ) Using the first model (high - income logistic regression) as an example, a positive and significant coefficient on the year variable would indicate that a ll households have a higher probability of being classified as high income in 200 7 than 19 98 , ceteris paribus . A positive and significant coefficient on the small business variable would indicate that households with a small business owned and operated by a household member would have a higher probability of being classified as high income than other households without a small business owned and operated by a household member , ceteris paribus . A positive and significant coefficient on the interaction term w ould indicate that households with small businesses fared better than other households from 19 98 to 200 7 . This same analysis was conducted for 2001 to 200 7 and 2004 to 2007 to test for the robustness of these results over time. The second set of regressions utilize s the same dummy variable for the year 200 7 and a dummy variable to identify households owning multiple small businesses to determine whether households owning multiple small businesses fared better from 19 98 to 200 7 than households owni ng just one small business. This set of regressions uses observations for households owning and managing one or more small businesses only. The variables of interest are the main effects on the dummy variables (year 200 7 and multiple small business ownersh ip) and the interaction term. The second set of models is specified as follows: HI = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employ ees, firm age, legal org anization , industrial classification , found ing status ) where HI = high income (1=greater than $73,779 in 2007$) ## 15 MB = household with a multiple small businesses dummy variable; Y0 7 = year dummy variable for 200 7 ; age = age of the household head (dummy variables for less than 35, 35 to 44, 45 to 54, 55 to 64, 65 to 74 and 75 or older); race = race of the household head ( 1=minority, 0=otherwise ); gender = gender of household head ( 1= male and 0= female); education = education level (categorical variables for some high school, high school grad uate, some college, college graduate); marital status = marital status ( 1= married or 0=unmarried ); stock ownership = owns publicly traded stock ( 1=yes , 0=no ); real estate ownership = owns real estate (1=yes, 0=no); employ ees = number of employees in the business (continuous); firm age = age of the business (continuous); legal organization = categorical variables for p artnership, sole proprietorship, subchapter s corporation and regular corporation); industrial classification = categorical variables for a griculture, construction/manufacturing, wholesale/retail and service/other); and, found ing status = categorical variables for bought/invested , started and inherited/given. HW = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HW = high wealth ( 1= greater than $ $1.476 in 2007$ ) all other variables are the same as above. HI50 = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; a ge, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HI 5 0 = high income (1=top 50% of income earners) all other variables are the same as above. HW50 = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) where HW 5 0 = high wealth (1=top 50% of wea lth holders) all other variables are the same as above. Log income = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) ## 16 Log wealth = f(MB, Y0 7 , MB*Y0 7 ; age, race, gender, education, marital status, stock ownership, real estate ownership , employees, firm age, legal organization, industrial classification, founding status) Once again, the coefficient on the interac tion term (MB*Y0 7 ) is assessed to determine whether households with multiple small businesses have fared better than other households owning small businesses from 19 98 to 200 7 . This same analysis was conducted for 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 200 7 to test for the robustness of these results over time. The next section reports the results of this study. Results This section compares the weighted samples in 19 98, 2001, 2004 and 200 7 , evaluates the probability of being classified as high income and /or high wealth, examines the number of business - owning households, compares the demographic and financial characteristics of single - and multiple - business - owning families, compares real mean and median income and wealth, compares the shares of total famil y income and wealth between business - owning and non - business - owning families and across different types of business owners, and assesses the determinants of high income and high wealth families over the 1 0 years of this study (19 98 through 200 7 ). Univariat e Analysis The sample weights were employed for the univariate and multivariate analyses in this study. The characteristics of the household and business were somewhat different in 19 98 and 200 7 (Table 1). The household heads interviewed in 200 7 were somew hat older, more likely to be from a minority group, slightly better educated , slightly higher ## 17 Table 1 Sample Characteristics Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 Age Less than 35 23.3 22.7 22.2 21.7 35 to 44 23.3 * 22.3 * 20.7 19.6 45 to 54 19.2 20.7 20.7 20.8 55 to 64 12.8 * 13.2 * 15.3 * 16.8 65 to 74 11.2 10.7 10.4 10.5 75 or more 10.2 10.3 10.7 10.6 Gender Man 72.1 73.3 71.9 72.3 Woman 27.9 26.7 28.1 27.7 Race Nonwhite or Hispanic 22.2 * 23.7 * 26.4 26.1 White, non-Hispanic 77.8 * 76.3 * 73.6 73.9 Education No high school diploma 16.3 * 15.9 * 14.5 13.5 High school diploma 31.8 31.6 30.7 * 32.9 Some college 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.4 College degree 33.3 34.2 36.5 35.2 Marital Status Married 52.2 53.2 * 50.4 51.0 Not married 47.8 46.8 * 49.6 49.0 Income of household (2007 dollars) Less than $10,000 9.5 * 7.6 * 7.2 6.4 $10,000 to $24,999 19.4 18.1 18.9 19.6 $25,000 to $49,999 27.2 27.0 26.1 26.4 $50,000 to $99,999 28.6 28.7 28.4 28.0 $100,000 or more 15.3 * 18.6 19.3 19.6 Net Worth of Household (2007 Dollars) Less than $50,000 39.5 * 37.7 38.3 36.6 $50,000 to $99,999 11.9 * 11.7 * 11.4 10.2 $100,000 to $249,999 21.2 * 18.8 18.9 18.8 $250,000 to $499,999 14.0 13.9 12.6 * 14.9 $500,000 to $999,999 7.8 * 9.5 9.8 10.5 $1,000,000 or more 5.6 * 8.5 9.0 9.1 Owns Public Stock Yes 15.3 18.6 * 19.3 * 19.6 No 84.7 81.4 * 80.7 * 80.4 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) Yes 9.5 * 7.6 * 7.2 6.4 No 90.5 * 92.4 * 92.8 93.6 ## 18 Table 1 Sample Characteristics (continued) Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 Business Owner Yes 12.7 13.7 13.2 13.6 No 87.3 86.3 86.8 86.4 Business Owners Only Small Business Owner Manager Yes 55.4 53.8 52.4 52.3 No 44.6 46.2 47.6 47.7 Business Age Less than 1 year 4.4 5.7 9.2 * 5.5 1 to 4 years 29.0 22.8 25.2 25.9 5 to 9 years 18.9 17.5 21.0 17.9 10 to 19 years 24.9 23.8 21.3 23.0 20 years or more 22.8 30.2 23.4 27.7 Business Size (including owner) 1 or fewer 42.3 43.7 44.1 44.9 2 to 4 35.0 31.1 32.1 29.8 5 to 9 12.7 12.8 9.7 9.9 10 to 24 4.8 * 6.9 7.1 8.3 25 or more 5.2 5.6 6.9 7.1 Business Size (gross sales) Less than $50,000 54.9 * 49.6 51.9 47.8 $50,000 - $99,999 11.5 10.7 13.6 12.0 $100,000 - $249,999 10.3 12.2 9.7 13.1 $250,000 - $499,999 8.4 9.4 8.3 7.7 $500,000 - $999,999 6.7 6.7 3.9 6.0 $1,000,000 or more 8.1 * 11.5 12.6 13.3 Legal Organization Partnership 24.1 * 24.0 * 28.1 * 34.2 Sole proprietorship 51.1 * 49.3 48.3 44.2 Subchapter S corporation 13.0 15.7 14.2 14.1 Subchapter C corporation 11.8 11.0 * 9.3 7.4 Business Industrial Classification Agriculturally related 10.0 13.4 9.6 10.3 Mining/construction/manufacturing 24.4 19.4 23.6 23.9 Wholesale, retail 16.2 11.8 17.8 13.7 Services and other 49.4 55.3 49.0 52.1 Founding Status Bought or invested 20.9 * 18.3 16.2 16.2 Started 66.1 68.3 71.6 * 65.5 Inherited/given/other 12.9 * 13.5 * 12.2 * 18.3 Number of Observations, all 4,305 4,442 4,519 4,418 Number of Observations, business only ho 1,277 1,354 1,385 1,417 ## 19 income earner s , slightly higher wealth holders, and more likely to own real estate than household heads in 19 98 . The businesses operated by members of the household were quite similar in 19 98 and 200 7 . Businesses were somewhat larger, more likely to be organized as partnerships and les s likely to be organized as sole proprietorships , and less likely to have been purchased ( bought or invested in ) businesses and more likely to have been inherited business es in 200 7 than in 19 98 . All respondents were significantly more likely to be high i ncome earners in 2007 than 1998 with 26.3% of households being high income in 1998 and 31.0% of households being high income in 2007 (Table 2). Families owning any businesses we re significantly more likely to be high income earners in 200 7 than 19 98 . Just under 48% of small business owners were classified as high income in 1998 , while nearly 59% of small business owners were classified as high income by 2007. The largest percentage gain in the likelihood of being high income (53.7%) from 1998 to 2007 was achieved by small business owners with more than one business. The wealth picture was very similar , with all households realizing a significant increase in the likelihood of being classified as high wealth. Small - business - owning households realized a n increase in the likelihood being classified as high wealth from 13.4% in 19 98 to 2 3 . 7% in 2007 (Table 3 ). Again, the largest percentage gain in the likelihood of being high wealth (82.7%) from 1998 to 2007 was achieved by small business owners with more than one business. In 1998, small - business - owning households were over two times more likely to be classified as high income (47.6% versus 23.0%) and about eight times more likely to be ## 20 Table 2 Probability of Being High Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 0.263 0.312 0.300 0.310 0.178 -0.006 0.033 No business ownership 0.230 0.266 0.258 0.263 0.143 -0.011 0.021 Any business ownership 0.486 0.597 0.574 0.605 0.246 0.014 0.055 Small business 0.476 0.583 0.565 0.589 0.236 0.009 0.042 single business only 0.471 0.553 0.523 0.550 0.166 -0.005 0.051 multiple businesses 0.497 0.694 0.760 0.763 0.537 0.101 0.005 Note: Bolded and italicized proportions are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 proportions (reference group). Proportional Change ## Table 3 Probability of Being High Wealth, 1989 to 2004 ## Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 0.033 0.052 0.052 0.060 0.824 0.172 0.158 No business ownership 0.017 0.024 0.029 0.030 0.776 0.230 0.052 Any business ownership 0.144 0.222 0.207 0.254 0.759 0.142 0.226 Small business 0.134 0.210 0.196 0.237 0.763 0.126 0.209 single business only 0.093 0.165 0.139 0.167 0.795 0.010 0.200 multiple businesses 0.301 0.373 0.460 0.550 0.827 0.477 0.197 Note: Bolded and italicized proportions are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 1989 proportions (reference group). (proportions) Proportional Change classified high wealth (13.4% versus 1.7%) than households not owning a business; and m ultiple business owners had the highest probability of being classified hig h income ## 21 ( 49.7% ) and high wealth ( 30.1% ) of the small business owners. In 200 7 , a household owning any small business had nearly a 59% chance of being classified high income and more than a 2 3% chance of being classified as high wealth. By 200 7 the income gap betwe en households with and without small business es had widened slightly and the wealth gap had remained about the same . Small - business - owning households were now just over two times more likely to be classified high income ( 58.9% versus 2 6.3% ) and nearly eight times more likely to be classified as high wealth ( 23.7% versus 3.0 % ). Multiple business owners still appeared to be the most prosperous small business group , with over three - fourths of them high income and over one - half classified a s high wealth. From 19 98 to 200 7 the likelihood of being high income and high wealth increased for all groups. More recently (from 2004 to 2007), households owning a small business have done much better than other households. Households owning a small bus iness realized a 4.2% increase in the likelihood of being high income and more than 20% increase in the likelihood of being high wealth, while households with no business ownership realized increases of 2.1% and 5.2% in the likelihood being high income and high wealth, respectively. Given this relatively positive increase in the likelihood of being a high income earner or high wealth holder one would expect the percentage of small business - ownin g households to increase. Interestingly, the percentage of hous eholds with small businesses increased slightly from 11.7% of all households in 1998 (about 12 million small business es and 102.5 million households) to nearly 12.4% of all households in 2007 (14.3 million small businesses and 116.1 million households). Table 4 compares mean household income for all households and those owning at least one business. Real mean income was significantly higher in 200 7 than in 19 98 for ## 22 Table 4 Mean Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 67,718 81,064 77,299 84,399 0.246 0.041 0.092 No business ownership 56,045 64,199 62,301 64,207 0.146 0.000 0.031 Any business ownership 147,708 187,157 175,649 212,947 0.442 0.138 0.212 Small business 139,284 168,373 157,842 185,350 0.331 0.101 0.174 single business only 109,812 142,074 125,622 143,736 0.309 0.012 0.144 multiple businesses 257,817 262,432 306,732 371,180 0.440 0.414 0.210 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) ## all household types, increasing by nearly 25% from $67,718 in 1998 to $84,399 in 2007. Households not owning a business realized a real mean income increase of 14.6% from 1998 to 2007. Small business real mean income increased from $139,284 to $185,350 (33.1%). Real mean incom e for small businesses owning just one business increased from $109,812 in 1998 to $143,736 in 2007 (30.9%), even though it had fluctuated substantially over this period of time. Multiple - business - owning households realized an increase of over 40% in real mean income from 1998 to 2007. Median income results are similar to the mean income results, although median income increased by a much lower percentage than mean income for non - business owners (6.2%) and a much higher percentage than mean income for multi ple business owners (97.1%). Refer to Table 4.1 for other median income results (See Appendix A). The wealth story is very similar (Table 5). Real mean wealth increased by over 56% for all households from 1998 to 2007. Households not owning a business realized a real mean wealth increase of just under 40%. Households owning a small business realized a substantial increase in wealth from $1,167,271 to $1,906,807 (63.4%). ## 23 Table 5 Mean Wealth, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 356,310 467,234 483,604 557,592 0.565 0.193 0.153 No business ownership 219,341 274,485 287,857 306,783 0.399 0.118 0.066 Any business ownership 1,294,922 1,679,758 1,767,183 2,154,334 0.664 0.283 0.219 Small business 1,167,271 1,529,587 1,604,712 1,906,807 0.634 0.247 0.188 single business only 783,066 1,092,480 1,036,995 1,168,055 0.492 0.069 0.126 multiple businesses 2,712,511 3,092,892 4,228,141 5,205,702 0.919 0.683 0.231 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) ## Households with just one business realized a significantly more modest increase (49.2%), while households with more than one business realized substantially higher increases in real mean wealth (91.9%) than other small business owners. Median wealth results are similar to the mean wealth results, although median wealth increased by a much lower percentage than mean wealth for no n - business owners ( 1 9. 6 %) and a much higher percentage than mean wealth for multiple business owners ( 214% ). Please refer to Table 5.1 for other median income results (See Appendix B). Aggregate household income increased by just over 42 % for all responde nts between 19 98 and 200 7 (Table 6). The unit of observation is all families belonging to a specific group in each time period. Aggregate income may increase over time either because the group has become larger or because group members have earned more inc ome. Families with small business ownership realized a much higher perce ntage change in aggregate income than families without any business ownership (58.8% versus 28%). Households owning multiple businesses realized the largest increase in aggregate ## 24 Ta ble 6 Aggregate Income for All Households, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) All respondents 6.9 8.6 8.7 9.8 0.420 0.140 0.126 No business ownership 5.0 5.9 6.1 6.4 0.280 0.085 0.049 Any business ownership 1.9 2.7 2.6 3.4 0.789 0.259 0.308 Small business 1.7 2.2 2.2 2.7 0.588 0.227 0.227 single business only 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.7 0.545 0.133 0.214 multiple businesses 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.667 0.250 0.250 Changes (2007 dollars) ## i ncome ( nearly 67% ) of any households owning small businesses, while households owning only one business realized a smaller increase in aggregate income (54.5% ). Families wi th no business ownership realized smaller percentage changes in aggregate wealth than families with some small business ownership (Table 7). Small business owners nearly doubl ed their aggregate wealth from 1998 to 2007 from $14.0 trillion in 1998 to $27.3 trillion in 2007 . H ouseholds owning just one small business realized an increase in aggregate wealth of over 82%, while those households owning more than one small business realized an increase in aggregate wealth of o ver 110%. Multiple business owners are a critical part of the small business economic engine. In 1998 these multiple business households constituted about 20% of all small business - owning households ; however , they earned over 3 5% of total household income and held over 46% of the wealth of small business owners. In 200 7 , they constituted about 18% of all s mall - business - owning households; however , they now earned 37% of total household income and held over 50% of the wealth of small - business - owning ## 25 Table 7 Aggregate Wealth for All Households, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) (x 1 t.) All respondents 36.5 49.8 54.2 64.7 0.773 0.299 0.194 No business ownership 19.6 25.2 28.0 30.8 0.571 0.222 0.100 Any business ownership 16.9 24.5 26.2 34.0 1.012 0.388 0.298 Small business 14.0 20.2 22.1 27.3 0.950 0.351 0.235 single business only 7.5 11.3 11.7 13.7 0.827 0.212 0.171 multiple businesses 6.5 8.9 10.3 13.7 1.108 0.539 0.330 Changes (2007 dollars) ## households. It appears that households owning multiple small businesses are becoming more significant contributors to aggregate household income and wealth. Multivariate Analysis Tables 8 , 9 and 10 examine the determinants of high income and high wealth for all households from 19 98 to 200 7, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 200 7 , respectively. The six models reported in these tables examine how households owning and managing small businesses fared in relation to other households from 19 98 to 2007 . Households owning small businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth; a higher pro bability of being in the top 50% of income and wealth; and have higher log in come and log wealth than other households (Table 8) . In general, h ouseholds have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth ; have a lower pro bability of being in the top 50% of income and wealth; and have higher log income in 2007 than 1998 . The interaction term was nearly statistically significant in just t he high income ## 26 Table 8 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 1998 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.4823 0.0001 -8.8639 0.0001 -0.1998 0.0797 -4.8245 0.0001 10.2250 0.0001 5.2556 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.2915 0.0116 1.5252 0.0001 0.4061 0.0016 1.3991 0.0001 0.1571 0.0067 1.2159 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.2468 0.0002 0.5880 0.0001 -0.1591 0.0059 -0.2432 0.0002 0.2021 0.0001 0.0849 0.1820 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.3088 0.0543 0.2349 0.3396 0.2401 0.1809 0.0508 0.8129 -0.0236 0.7606 0.0437 0.8109 Age of owner manager -0.0145 0.0001 0.0415 0.0001 -0.0226 0.0001 0.0566 0.0001 -0.0047 0.0001 0.0479 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8545 0.0001 0.7792 0.0010 0.9393 0.0001 0.4933 0.0001 0.3532 0.0001 0.6607 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2665 0.0008 -0.6368 0.0030 -0.2325 0.0005 -0.3856 0.0001 -0.1872 0.0001 -0.4086 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.3248 0.0001 -2.0574 0.0001 -2.1554 0.0001 -1.5662 0.0001 -0.8971 0.0001 -1.1975 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4881 0.0001 -1.8023 0.0001 -1.2911 0.0001 -1.0151 0.0001 -0.5396 0.0001 -0.3802 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8646 0.0001 -1.2767 0.0001 -0.8476 0.0001 -0.6798 0.0001 -0.4001 0.0001 -0.5183 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.1338 0.0001 0.0879 0.6064 0.8270 0.0001 0.2807 0.0008 0.4175 0.0001 0.2186 0.0062 Owns Stocks 0.7961 0.0001 1.3654 0.0001 0.8215 0.0001 1.2522 0.0001 0.3372 0.0001 1.0769 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8253 0.0001 2.6633 0.0001 1.5846 0.0001 2.9262 0.0001 0.5798 0.0001 3.6049 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3288 0.3512 0.3160 0.4547 0.2791 0.4699 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 27 probability equation. The positive coefficient on the interaction term indicates that households owning small businesses in 2007 had a higher probability of being high income than other households in 1998 and 2007. In other words, households owning small b usinesses appear to have fared better than other households in increasing their probability of being high income over this period of time. The other income and wealth regressions would suggest that households owning small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 1998 to 2007. In general, it appears that households owning small businesses increased their income and wealth at the about the same rate as other households. A similar analysis using the data from 2001 to 2007 does not supp ort all the results found in 1998 to 2007 (Table 9). Households owning small businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth, a higher probability of being in the highest 50% of income and wealth categories, and higher log income and wealth than other households. However, households only have a higher probability of being high wealth in 2007 than in 2001. The interaction term is not statistically significant in any of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regression s suggest that households owning small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 2001 to 2007. A similar analysis using the data from 2004 to 2007 generally support s the results found in 2001 to 2007 (Table 10). Households owning sma ll businesses have a higher probability of being high income and high wealth, a higher probability of being in the highest 50% of income and wealth categories, and higher log income and wealth than other households . H ouseholds have a higher probability of being high income and wealth ## 28 Table 9 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2001 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.0631 0.0001 -8.2564 0.0001 -0.3999 0.0006 -4.8031 0.0001 10.4280 0.0001 5.5671 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.5174 0.0001 1.9317 0.0001 0.3350 0.0071 1.8451 0.0001 0.2717 0.0001 1.2704 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.0248 0.6968 0.3714 0.0083 -0.0293 0.6147 -0.0883 0.1758 0.0379 0.0838 -0.0508 0.4095 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.0843 0.5940 -0.1318 0.5507 0.2964 0.0940 -0.4043 0.0718 -0.1142 0.0662 -0.0489 0.7794 Age of owner manager -0.0192 0.0001 0.0462 0.0001 -0.0236 0.0001 0.0539 0.0001 -0.0058 0.0001 0.0470 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8689 0.0001 0.4387 0.0551 0.9811 0.0001 0.3498 0.0002 0.2988 0.0001 0.5946 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2235 0.0034 -0.7752 0.0002 -0.1643 0.0144 -0.4051 0.0001 -0.1187 0.0001 -0.5087 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.0861 0.0001 -2.1018 0.0001 -2.2759 0.0001 -1.6886 0.0001 -0.8355 0.0001 -1.4242 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4426 0.0001 -1.8630 0.0001 -1.2875 0.0001 -1.0324 0.0001 -0.5011 0.0001 -0.4984 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8302 0.0001 -1.2142 0.0001 -0.7871 0.0001 -0.6880 0.0001 -0.3315 0.0001 -0.5391 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0639 0.0001 0.3530 0.0361 0.8686 0.0001 0.3494 0.0001 0.3993 0.0001 0.3630 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.8065 0.0001 1.3991 0.0001 0.7722 0.0001 1.2486 0.0001 0.3631 0.0001 0.9477 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8557 0.0001 2.0747 0.0001 1.6666 0.0001 2.9906 0.0001 0.5949 0.0001 3.5630 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3323 0.3606 0.3322 0.4639 0.3517 0.4874 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 29 Table 10 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2004 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.5226 0.0001 -9.0667 0.0001 -0.4939 0.0001 -5.5596 0.0001 10.3191 0.0001 5.1054 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.6840 0.0001 1.7685 0.0001 0.4466 0.0004 1.7418 0.0001 0.2334 0.0001 1.3210 0.0001 Year dummy, 2004 0.1448 0.0245 0.2969 0.0284 -0.0474 0.4157 0.0166 0.8001 0.0419 0.0582 0.0243 0.6860 Interaction: small business and 2004 -0.0910 0.5711 0.0083 0.9700 0.1709 0.3390 -0.2688 0.2209 -0.0758 0.2286 -0.0826 0.6296 Age of owner manager -0.0144 0.0001 0.0445 0.0001 -0.0211 0.0001 0.0574 0.0001 -0.0041 0.0001 0.0469 0.0001 Gender - man 1.0205 0.0001 0.6331 0.0040 0.8705 0.0001 0.5566 0.0001 0.3048 0.0001 0.8426 0.0001 Race - minority -0.1700 0.0251 -0.6622 0.0008 -0.1242 0.0601 -0.2146 0.0042 -0.0982 0.0001 -0.3157 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.4194 0.0001 -1.7239 0.0001 -2.3321 0.0001 -1.6239 0.0001 -0.8083 0.0001 -1.0926 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.5621 0.0001 -1.9781 0.0001 -1.3537 0.0001 -0.9386 0.0001 -0.5070 0.0001 -0.2786 0.0001 Education - some college -0.9292 0.0001 -1.1525 0.0001 -0.8399 0.0001 -0.7447 0.0001 -0.3714 0.0001 -0.4883 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.1127 0.0001 0.2901 0.0658 1.0729 0.0001 0.2705 0.0011 0.4465 0.0001 0.1119 0.1345 Owns Stocks 0.8165 0.0001 1.3470 0.0001 0.8835 0.0001 1.3288 0.0001 0.3301 0.0001 1.0353 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.8547 0.0001 2.9690 0.0001 1.6396 0.0001 3.3229 0.0001 0.5840 0.0001 3.7887 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.3483 0.3585 0.3424 0.4770 0.3396 0.4958 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 30 in 2007 than in 2004. Once again, the interaction term is not statistically significant in any of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regressions suggest that households owning small b usinesses in 2007 fared about the same as other households from 2004 to 2007. The control variables were quite interesting in this regression analysis. High income households are headed by younger people, while higher wealth households are headed by older people. Higher income households are more likely to be headed by men, the owners are well educated and they are married. In addition, high income and high wealth households are more likely to own public stock and real estate. Tables 11, 12 and 13 utilize information on households with small business owners to assess how multiple and single business owners fared from 1998 to 2007, 2001 to 2007 and 2004 to 2007, respectively. Households owning multiple businesses had a higher probability of being high wealth , a higher probability of being in the highest 50% wealth bracket and higher log income and wealth than other households owning small businesses (Table 11). Households owning small businesses had a higher probability of being high income and high wealth th an other households in 2007 than in 1998. These households owning multiple businesses held more wealth than other small businesses. The interaction term was insignificant in all cases, except the log wealth equation. In the log wealth equation , the positive coefficient on the interaction term indicates that households owning multiple small businesses in 2007 had a higher probability of being high wealth than other households owning just one small business in 1998 and 2007. In other words, house holds owning multiple small businesses appear to have fared better than other households owning just one small business in increasing their wealth over this ## 31 Table 11 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 1998 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.6475 0.0045 -6.6128 0.0001 0.0561 0.9338 -2.0452 0.0217 9.9165 0.0001 9.4500 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0703 0.7923 1.3115 0.0002 0.5055 0.1306 1.1652 0.0124 0.2718 0.0313 0.7141 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.3914 0.0144 0.7840 0.0018 0.0600 0.7433 -0.2169 0.3193 0.1429 0.0633 0.1396 0.1317 Interaction: multiple owner and 1998 0.6833 0.0753 0.5613 0.2190 0.0634 0.8992 0.1321 0.8418 0.0986 0.5701 0.4452 0.0333 Owner Charateristics Age of owner manager -0.0111 0.1176 0.0226 0.0206 -0.0196 0.0151 0.0590 0.0001 -0.0033 0.3168 0.0333 0.0001 Gender - man 0.2830 0.3507 1.4517 0.0093 1.0433 0.0007 0.7090 0.0529 0.3827 0.0071 0.4042 0.0182 Race - minority -0.0043 0.9839 -0.7469 0.0634 -0.1461 0.5401 -0.1886 0.4671 -0.1526 0.1372 -0.0884 0.4744 Education - no high school diploma -1.4361 0.0001 -1.2473 0.0594 -1.1097 0.0004 -0.2301 0.5565 -0.4138 0.0054 -0.3588 0.0448 Education - high school diploma -1.0457 0.0001 -1.0963 0.0003 -0.9179 0.0001 -0.2902 0.2654 -0.4316 0.0001 -0.2798 0.0105 Education - some college -0.8228 0.0001 -1.1112 0.0003 -0.6721 0.0036 -0.6759 0.0122 -0.3919 0.0001 -0.3309 0.0033 Marital status - married 0.8575 0.0001 -0.2283 0.4254 0.3562 0.1081 0.0784 0.7603 0.1877 0.0462 0.1624 0.1516 Owns Stocks 0.2464 0.1369 0.6308 0.0023 0.5638 0.0113 1.2287 0.0001 0.1338 0.0906 0.7616 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.1563 0.0001 2.4172 0.0016 1.1055 0.0001 2.3589 0.0001 0.6507 0.0001 2.1062 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0239 0.0064 0.0452 0.0001 0.0154 0.1257 0.0272 0.0570 0.0118 0.0038 0.0232 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0196 0.5712 0.1092 0.1237 0.0117 0.8074 0.0169 0.8594 0.0005 0.5491 0.0012 0.2481 Organization, partnership -0.6934 0.0137 -0.4737 0.1542 -0.6919 0.0843 -0.9013 0.0818 -0.4209 0.0013 -0.6520 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6249 0.0163 -1.1645 0.0002 -0.7293 0.0557 -1.0722 0.0300 -0.3618 0.0028 -0.7253 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.3095 0.3215 -0.2087 0.5322 0.5952 0.2264 0.0894 0.8796 0.2057 0.1380 -0.0383 0.8182 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.8416 0.0037 0.4343 0.3353 0.5271 0.0695 -0.0433 0.9167 0.9293 0.0001 -0.2982 0.0648 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.6643 0.0305 -0.0050 0.9919 0.5883 0.0661 -0.9666 0.0256 0.9714 0.0001 -0.5382 0.0020 Industry, services and other 1.2450 0.0001 0.8274 0.0468 1.2134 0.0001 -0.2546 0.5227 1.1810 0.0001 -0.1803 0.2358 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.2494 0.4235 -0.4237 0.2794 0.1771 0.6288 -0.0698 0.8890 -0.3859 0.0068 0.0282 0.8693 Founding status, started -0.2398 0.4042 -0.7530 0.0346 -0.1524 0.6543 -0.9490 0.0362 -0.4458 0.0007 -0.6456 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.1890 0.3462 0.1855 0.3502 0.1494 0.3720 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 32 period of time. The main effect term for the year dummy 1998 was significant at the 13% level of significance. Therefore, this result should be viewed with caution. Similar results were found in analyzi ng the 2001 to 2007 information (Table 12). These households owning multiple small businesses had more wealth than households owning just one small business. Households owning small businesses had a lower probability of being in the highest 50% wealth brac ket and had lower wealth in 2007 than in 2001. The interaction term was significant in the log wealth equation suggesting that households owning multiple small businesses appear to have fared better than other households owning just one small business in i ncreasing their wealth over this period of time. S imilar results were found i n analyzing the 2004 to 2007 information (Table 13). H ouseholds owning multiple small businesses were more likely to be high wealth, to be in the highe st 50% wealth bracket and to have more wealth than households owning just one small business. Households owning small businesses had somewhat lower mean log income and wealth in 2007 than in 2004. The interaction term is not statistically significant in an y of these regressions. Therefore, these income and wealth regressions suggest that households owning multiple small businesses in 2007 fared about the same as households owning just one small business from 2004 to 2007. Equity (fairness) considerations ar e important in assessing any subset of households. Over 47% of all income earned by households was earned by those in the top 10 %, while over 53% of all income earned by households owning a small business was earned by those in the top ## 33 Tabl e 12 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -0.9118 0.1117 -5.4725 0.0001 0.5682 0.3820 -0.8844 0.3277 10.3998 0.0001 9.8827 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0232 0.9283 0.5311 0.0594 -0.0937 0.7560 -0.0272 0.9511 0.1242 0.2237 0.3626 0.0063 Year dummy, 2001 0.0123 0.9393 -0.1124 0.6058 0.2078 0.2511 -0.5000 0.0314 -0.1302 0.0471 -0.2071 0.0151 Interaction: multiple owner and 2001 0.6047 0.1115 1.3307 0.0013 0.5479 0.2474 1.2708 0.0504 0.2210 0.1245 0.7720 0.0001 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0103 0.1411 0.0339 0.0002 -0.0175 0.0258 0.0460 0.0001 -0.0063 0.0242 0.0386 0.0001 Gender - man -0.0474 0.8742 1.1805 0.0136 0.3215 0.2856 0.5191 0.1788 0.2070 0.0901 0.1866 0.2399 Race - minority 0.0868 0.6865 -0.5703 0.1195 0.0415 0.8643 -0.5126 0.0439 -0.1839 0.0363 -0.1339 0.2408 Education - no high school diploma -1.0497 0.0007 -1.8187 0.0028 -1.0151 0.0012 -0.0277 0.9487 -0.1610 0.2035 -0.1695 0.3031 Education - high school diploma -1.2393 0.0001 -1.4166 0.0001 -1.1730 0.0001 -0.4054 0.1251 -0.4422 0.0001 -0.4227 0.0001 Education - some college -0.6972 0.0005 -1.2259 0.0001 -0.6897 0.0034 -0.5602 0.0502 -0.2401 0.0036 -0.3592 0.0008 Marital status - married 0.9859 0.0001 -0.1936 0.4884 0.8035 0.0002 0.2415 0.3774 0.3259 0.0001 0.4265 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.5951 0.0003 1.1147 0.0001 0.6263 0.0032 0.9863 0.0008 0.3026 0.0001 0.7516 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.4898 0.0001 1.6983 0.0015 1.3790 0.0001 2.4580 0.0001 0.7648 0.0001 1.8279 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0207 0.0162 0.0395 0.0002 0.0134 0.1654 0.0355 0.0143 0.0134 0.0001 0.0196 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0176 0.6315 0.1317 0.1063 0.0423 0.6297 0.0110 0.8569 0.0027 0.1742 0.0026 0.3187 Organization, partnership -0.7683 0.0108 -0.2794 0.3644 -0.7227 0.0553 -1.3610 0.0165 -0.1737 0.1225 -0.5857 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.9407 0.0008 -1.0917 0.0002 -0.7452 0.0340 -1.5065 0.0054 -0.3391 0.0011 -0.8343 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.4034 0.2290 0.0941 0.7605 0.1481 0.7272 0.0266 0.9676 0.2032 0.0817 0.1960 0.1965 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.3840 0.1483 0.5961 0.1413 0.1705 0.5358 -0.2109 0.6095 0.4554 0.0001 -0.2083 0.1462 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.3983 0.1722 0.3046 0.4770 0.9911 0.0036 -1.0028 0.0229 0.7477 0.0001 -0.5319 0.0007 Industry, services and other 0.7134 0.0037 0.6115 0.0966 0.7927 0.0024 -0.3673 0.3478 0.7307 0.0001 -0.3576 0.0068 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1360 0.6787 -0.4121 0.2773 -0.2928 0.4542 0.2534 0.6331 -0.3840 0.0022 0.1144 0.4832 Founding status, started -0.1575 0.5965 -0.8853 0.0112 -0.4320 0.2312 -0.7239 0.1229 -0.3232 0.0045 -0.5987 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2093 0.3279 0.1954 0.3498 0.1803 0.3850 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 34 Table 13 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2004 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.9361 0.0013 -6.3077 0.0001 -0.4991 0.4397 -2.3632 0.0102 10.2616 0.0001 9.3716 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses 0.4849 0.1163 1.2401 0.0001 -0.2111 0.5374 1.4165 0.0175 0.0674 0.5520 0.8022 0.0001 Year dummy, 2007 -0.0097 0.9521 0.0961 0.6638 0.0542 0.7630 -0.3236 0.1351 -0.1244 0.0592 -0.1630 0.0555 Interaction: multiple owner and 2007 0.1092 0.7945 0.6823 0.1165 0.7419 0.1396 -0.0583 0.9395 0.2976 0.0539 0.3508 0.0785 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0095 0.1773 0.0298 0.0012 -0.0214 0.0055 0.0624 0.0001 -0.0060 0.0314 0.0438 0.0001 Gender - man 0.7133 0.0207 1.7371 0.0020 0.9053 0.0018 1.1208 0.0018 0.3972 0.0011 0.3516 0.0253 Race - minority -0.2750 0.1868 -0.7125 0.0469 -0.5291 0.0160 -0.2646 0.2909 -0.2480 0.0037 -0.0629 0.5686 Education - no high school diploma -1.3511 0.0001 -1.5888 0.0181 -1.0526 0.0011 -0.1723 0.6697 -0.3794 0.0052 -0.0221 0.8996 Education - high school diploma -1.2635 0.0001 -1.4669 0.0001 -0.6265 0.0026 0.1157 0.6648 -0.3857 0.0001 -0.2700 0.0068 Education - some college -0.7147 0.0005 -1.1444 0.0001 -0.4759 0.0441 -0.6270 0.0233 -0.4109 0.0001 -0.3677 0.0008 Marital status - married 1.0248 0.0001 -0.0953 0.7316 0.9481 0.0001 0.0715 0.7846 0.3457 0.0001 0.3685 0.0005 Owns Stocks 0.1106 0.5220 0.5743 0.0030 0.5603 0.0100 1.1332 0.0002 0.0879 0.2007 0.5445 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.3898 0.0001 2.4033 0.0006 1.1685 0.0001 2.5928 0.0001 0.6441 0.0001 2.0216 0.0001 Business Characteristics Business age 0.0230 0.0106 0.0430 0.0001 0.0149 0.1319 0.0166 0.2394 0.0163 0.0001 0.0199 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0111 0.7206 0.1691 0.1026 0.0475 0.6787 0.0121 0.9087 0.0029 0.1640 0.0027 0.3093 Organization, partnership -0.2680 0.3635 -0.4976 0.1278 -0.3008 0.4166 -1.1089 0.0760 -0.1462 0.2117 -0.4560 0.0026 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6563 0.0173 -1.1436 0.0003 -0.5170 0.1410 -1.6653 0.0058 -0.2942 0.0081 -0.8465 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.8746 0.0113 0.4123 0.2157 1.0216 0.0320 -0.0120 0.9867 0.1899 0.1282 0.2105 0.1918 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.4086 0.1552 0.3645 0.4049 0.0438 0.8821 0.0977 0.8014 0.4561 0.0001 -0.4255 0.0053 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.8100 0.0079 -0.0822 0.8585 0.5769 0.0762 -0.4195 0.3093 0.7037 0.0001 -0.5160 0.0014 Industry, services and other 1.3206 0.0001 0.6944 0.0878 0.8771 0.0023 0.2960 0.4365 0.9226 0.0001 -0.3258 0.0245 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1081 0.7462 -0.4384 0.2521 0.3025 0.4014 -0.1891 0.7160 -0.3991 0.0018 -0.0346 0.8344 Founding status, started -0.3163 0.2942 -1.1610 0.0007 0.2390 0.4669 -1.2071 0.0096 -0.3415 0.0030 -0.6437 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2523 0.3685 0.2202 0.3788 0.1733 0.3962 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 35 10% (Table 14). The concentration of income in the top 10% bracket increased from 41.1% in 1998 to 47.1% in 2007 (a 14.5% increase) for all households, while the concentration of income in the top 10% bracket increased from 49.7% to 53.3% (a 7.3% increase) for households owning small businesses. The wealth story is somewhat different (Table 15). The concentration of wealth in the top 10% of households increased from 67.3% to 71.5% ( a 6.3% increase), while the concentration of wealt h in the top 10% of households owning small businesses declined from 66.3% to 64.8% (a 2.3% decrease). This suggests that firms in the lower wealth q uintiles, especially in the 90 th ## quintile, realized more wealth accumulation tha n firms in the top quintile. In order to explore the influence of debt held in mortgages and other debt secured by residential real estate, two additional control variables were added to the analyses in Tables 8 through Table 13 : the log of debt in mortgage s secured by residential real estate and log of debt held in other debt secured by residential real estate. Even though variables were statistically significant factors in predicting income and wealth, the addition of these variables did not change the mos t important results. S ee Appendix C for Tables 8.1 through Table 13.1. Conclusions This study is primarily concerned with changes in income and wealth of families owning and not owning small businesses from the late 1990s to 2007. Who were the winners and losers? This study utilizes cross - section data to assess changes in income and wealth of all households and families owning different types of businesses from 1998 to 2007. ## 36 Table 14 Income Deciles for All Households and Small Business Owner/Ma nager Households Decile 1998 2001 2004 2007 1998 2001 2004 2007 10% 0.0086 0.0094 0.0098 0.0099 0.0107 0.0117 0.0104 0.0091 20% 0.0209 0.0196 0.0211 0.0193 0.0235 0.0205 0.0200 0.0205 30% 0.0321 0.0298 0.0319 0.0289 0.0325 0.0278 0.0305 0.0291 40% 0.0443 0.0401 0.0424 0.0380 0.0374 0.0371 0.0377 0.0353 50% 0.0566 0.0517 0.0549 0.0490 0.0461 0.0493 0.0471 0.0430 60% 0.0719 0.0657 0.0688 0.0630 0.0591 0.0582 0.0583 0.0520 70% 0.0902 0.0834 0.0863 0.0800 0.0705 0.0721 0.0727 0.0620 80% 0.1135 0.1061 0.1099 0.1020 0.0873 0.0909 0.0969 0.0850 90% 0.1507 0.1429 0.1509 0.1390 0.1363 0.1424 0.1418 0.1310 100% 0.4112 0.4513 0.4240 0.4710 0.4966 0.4900 0.4846 0.5330 All Households Small Business Owner Manager Households ## Table 15 Net Worth Deciles for All Households and Small Business Owner/Manager Households Decile 1998 2001 2004 2007 1998 2001 2004 2007 10% 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0015 0.0028 0.0015 0.0011 20% 0.0007 0.0007 0.0007 0.0006 0.0058 0.0070 0.0052 0.0049 30% 0.0036 0.0036 0.0031 0.0027 0.0106 0.0122 0.0098 0.0093 40% 0.0102 0.0090 0.0083 0.0079 0.0170 0.0190 0.0164 0.0139 50% 0.0201 0.0173 0.0163 0.0163 0.0249 0.0277 0.0232 0.0196 60% 0.0329 0.0285 0.0277 0.0279 0.0343 0.0367 0.0354 0.0317 70% 0.0502 0.0460 0.0440 0.0439 0.0498 0.0502 0.0478 0.0465 80% 0.0782 0.0755 0.0731 0.0670 0.0718 0.0800 0.0725 0.0764 90% 0.1312 0.1309 0.1343 0.1185 0.1218 0.1456 0.1396 0.1489 100% 0.6729 0.6885 0.6925 0.7152 0.6625 0.6188 0.6486 0.6477 All Households Small Business Owner Manager Households ## 37 While panel data would be preferred, the unit of observation is all familie s belonging to a specific group in each time period. Clearly, the economic pie increased in size during this period of time for households owning small businesses. However, the most important questions are the following: Did households owning small busines ses make more financial gains in terms of changes in income and wealth than households not owning a business; and did households owning multiple small business es make more financial gains than households owning just one small business ? Another study compl eted by Haynes and Ou (200 6 ) suggests that households owning small businesses, especially those owning only one small business, appear to have made smaller contributions to total wealth in 2001 than in the early 1990s. This evidence suggest ed that households owning only one small business seemed to be losing the race. They were making progress in increasing income and wealth, but they were making less progress than households not owning small businesses. This study suggests that the story ch anged significantly from the late 1990s through 2007. Households with and without s mall businesses have made very similar progress in increasing their income and wealth during a time of robust business activity. Households owning multiple small businesses appear to have accumulated wealth at somewhat faster rates than households owning just one small business. This result would suggest that the financial success of small business owners in one business is often leveraged into financial success in other busi ness ventures. If public policy is targeting growth in gross domestic product, households owning multiple small businesses appear to have the most potential to grow the economy . ## 38 The proportion of households owning and managing at least one small business has been remarkably static over a relatively long period of time , with about 12% of households owning and managing a small business. F rom 1998 to 2007 the growth in the number of small businesses (19.4%) outpaced the growth in the number of households (13 . 2%). The largest share of growth occurred in households owning and managing one business, even though the high income and wealth growth was realized by households owning and managing two or more small businesses. With the relatively good financial success of households owning small businesses over the past decade, why haven’t more small businesses been started or expanded ? The period of rapid economic expansion may have been a difficult time to start and nurture a new business and grow an existing small bus iness venture for several reasons: (1) Labor costs increased. The unemployment rate remained around 4% s tarting in 1998 , with some movement upward to over 6% in early 2003, and a fall back t o the 4% to 4.5% range in 2006; hence , the labor suppl y was tight for most of the decade (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2005 ) . In this type of labor market, small business owners faced higher wages. In addition, small business owners may have face d substantial challenges finding and retaining high quality employees. (2) The opportunity cost of capital increased. Financial capital remained relatively expensive to borrow from 1998 through 2006 , with rates ranging from 9.5% in 2000 to 4% in 2003 and 2004. While financial capital became less expensive to borrow from 2000 thro ugh 2004, rates steadily increased from late 2004 through 2006. Perhaps most important, the value ## 39 of the stock market (S&P 500) increased by over 4 % annually from early 1998 through 2006 . Investors, particularly family and friends who may have been willing to invest in a small business venture, had less risky alternatives for their excess cash. In this type of financial market, small business owners may have been facing higher costs of financing and restricted access, especially for start - up financing. (3) Other employment opportunities increased the opportunity cost of prospective owners. If higher inflation - adjusted net income and wealth are the only important criteri a considered by the busi ness owner, many of the family members owning a business may have been better off working for someone else. In a market with relatively low unemployment in a growing economy, the opportunity cost of risking one ’ s family’s financial resources in a small business venture increases substantially. In the current economy, r eeling from the severe disruptions in the financial markets, unemployment rates have increased to over 10 % , loosening the labor suppl y ; the stock market has declined by over 30% since mid - 2008 loosening financial capital ; and other investment and employmen t opportunities for small business owners are much less plentiful. Based on this assessment, it must be a good time to start a business because good people can be hired and retained, money is available from traditional and nontraditional lenders for qualif ied borrowers and the opportunity cost of starting a business has declined. Perhaps it is a good time to start a new business because of the cost advantages realized in a recessionary economy. However, astute small business ## 40 owners contemplating starting or expanding a business will be most concerned about the depth of the recessionary trough, rather than whether fin ancial capital is available. The results have some rather interesting public policy implications. If households owning small businesses are making similar financial progress to households not owning a business, then small business ownership may become a less attractive employment option because small business ownership is risky. Are additional incentiv es needed to encourage small business ownership? Recent changes in bankruptcy laws have removed part of the safety net for small business borrowers by making it more difficult for those with credit card debt to liquidate their assets in a Chapter 7 bankru ptcy. With the emergence of more line - of - credit and credit - card - based lending by large banks to small businesses , this change in the bankruptcy law has had a significant impact o n the strength of the safety net. Are other revisions in the bankruptcy law ne eded to provide a more secure safety net for small business owners (and their wealth)? What might be done to improve the financial performance of households owning a single small business? In general, h ouseholds owning multiple small businesses outperform households owning a single small business for a host of reasons, including more experience, education and financial capital. Revising rules to allow more angel and venture capital for these small businesses might provide more financial capital. Small busin esses are ess entially relationship borrowers; hence , they may be adversely affe cted by further concentration in commercial banking and less relationship lending at the local level. Further work is needed to determine if large banks are interested in servic ing small businesses. ## 41 A subset of small business owners, agricultural producers (farmers), are recipients of substantial subsidies provided by the 2008 Farm Bill and other legislation. Should some of these subsidy programs (such as revenue guarantees, pric e protection and production insurance) be extended to small business es? Most important, small business owners as a group realized substantial gains in real income and wealth from 19 98 to 200 7 , and they ran a very good race with other households not owning small businesses. Households owning at least one small business realized slightly lower increases in the probability of being high wealth than households not owning a small business. This result suggests that investments in small businesses realized lower financial returns tha n t investments in other assets. Even among small business owners, it appears that more of the growth in wealth was derived from ownership in publicly traded stocks and real estate than from the ownership of small business es . Given thes e relatively modest differences in the aggregate gains in wealth between households with and without small businesses it should be no surprise that the number of households owning small businesses has remained quite stable. F urther research utilizing high quality panel data is needed to compare the returns on business and other assets and assess the modest gains in income and wealth of small business - owning households during this time of robust economic growth. ## 42 References Azicorbe, A.M., Kennickell, A.B. and Moore, K.B. (2003). Recent changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the 1998 and 2001 Surveys of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin , January 2003, 1 - 32. Bucks, B.K., Kennickell, A.B., Machs, T.L. and Moore, K.B. (2009). Changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bulletin , 2009, 1 - 56. Bucks, B.K., Kennickell, A.B. and Moore, K.B. (2006). Recent changes in U.S. family finances: Evidence from the 2001 and 2004 Surveys of Consumer Fi nances, Federal Reserve Bulletin, 2006, 1 - 38. Haynes, G.W. (2005). Income and Wealth: How Did Households Owning Small Businesses Fare from 1992 to 2001 ? United States Small Business Administration, Office of Advocacy. Monograph for the U.S. Small Business Administration . Haynes, G.W. and Onochie, J.O. (2005). Is What's Good for the Business, Good for the Family: A Financial Assessment, in Exploring the family - business intersection with panel data: Past, present and future . United States Association of Small Business and Entrepreneurship/SBIDA 2005 Conference, Indian Wells, CA, January. Haynes, G.W. and Ou, C. (2006). How d id households owning small businesses fare during the largest ever peacetime expansion in the U.S. economy, United States Associatio n of Small Business and Entrepreneurship/SBIDA 2005 Conference Proceedings , Tucson, AZ, January. Haynes, G.W., & Avery, R. J. (1996). Family business: Can the family and the business finances be separated? Can the family and the business finances be separated? Preliminary results. Journal of Entrepreneurial and Small Business Finance , 5(1), 61 - 74. Kennickell, A.B. & Starr - McCluer, M. (1997). Changes in family finances in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey o f Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin , January 1997, 1 - 24. Kennickell, A.B., Starr - McCluer, M. & Surette, B.J. (2000). Changes in family finances in the U.S.: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances. Federal Reserve Bulletin, January 2000, 1 - 29. Lopez, R. (1986). Structural models of the farm household that allow for interdependent utility and profit maximization decisions. In: I. Singh, L. Squire and J. Straus (eds). Agricultural household models: Extensions, applications and policy . Baltim ore and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 306 - 325. ## 43 Wolff, E.N. (1998). Recent trends in the size distribution of household wealth, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 12(3), 131 - 150. Xaio, J.J., M.J. Alhabeeb, G.S. Hong and G.W. Haynes. Risk Tole rance of Business Owning Families, American Council on Consumer Interests, March 2000 . ## 44 Appendix A Table 4.1 Median Income, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 42,601 46,895 47,374 47,305 0.110 0.009 -0.001 No business ownership 38,729 42,085 43,991 41,135 0.062 -0.023 -0.065 Any business ownership 71,002 92,587 84,597 90,496 0.275 -0.023 0.070 Small business 69,712 90,182 84,597 86,383 0.239 -0.042 0.021 single business only 67,130 86,575 75,573 81,241 0.210 -0.062 0.075 multiple businesses 73,584 102,207 147,763 145,000 0.971 0.419 -0.019 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) ## 45 Appendix B Table 5.1 Median Wealth, 1998 to 2007 Characteristics 1998 2001 2004 2007 98 to 07 01 to 07 04 to 07 All respondents 93,986 102,690 102,085 121,900 0.297 0.187 0.194 No business ownership 76,098 79,825 79,571 91,030 0.196 0.140 0.144 Any business ownership 363,111 494,037 506,317 504,140 0.388 0.020 -0.004 Small business 348,088 475,557 474,918 459,000 0.319 -0.035 -0.034 single business only 314,986 434,388 363,223 381,400 0.211 -0.122 0.050 multiple businesses 578,279 977,325 1,327,324 1,816,000 2.140 0.858 0.368 Note: Bolded and italicized means are statistically different at the 0.05 level of significance from the 2007 means (reference group). Proportional Changes (2007 dollars) ## 46 Appendix C Table 8.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 1998 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.9197 0.0001 -8.7466 0.0001 -0.6487 0.0001 -4.4458 0.0001 10.0890 0.0001 5.2582 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.2442 0.0378 1.5130 0.0001 0.3549 0.0066 1.4113 0.0001 0.1317 0.0224 1.1978 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.2062 0.0019 0.6480 0.0001 -0.2215 0.0002 -0.1859 0.0052 0.1883 0.0001 0.0880 0.1671 Interaction: small business and 1998 0.2458 0.1323 0.1425 0.5706 0.1726 0.3440 0.0434 0.8395 -0.0590 0.4440 0.0086 0.9626 Age of owner manager -0.0041 0.0764 0.0400 0.0001 -0.0119 0.0001 0.0496 0.0001 -0.0018 0.0344 0.0479 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8612 0.0001 0.7069 0.0034 0.9558 0.0001 0.4886 0.0001 0.3480 0.0001 0.6478 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2738 0.0006 -0.7280 0.0009 -0.2365 0.0005 -0.3993 0.0001 -0.1889 0.0001 -0.4163 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.2495 0.0001 -1.9698 0.0001 -2.1069 0.0001 -1.6864 0.0001 -0.8672 0.0001 -1.1818 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4599 0.0001 -1.7416 0.0001 -1.2832 0.0001 -1.0457 0.0001 -0.5155 0.0001 -0.3659 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8705 0.0001 -1.3039 0.0001 -0.8503 0.0001 -0.6937 0.0001 -0.3873 0.0001 -0.5152 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0903 0.0001 0.1068 0.5396 0.7546 0.0001 0.3861 0.0001 0.3862 0.0001 0.2233 0.0054 Owns Stocks 0.8120 0.0001 1.3568 0.0001 0.8544 0.0001 1.2543 0.0001 0.3286 0.0001 1.0583 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.0828 0.0001 2.6239 0.0001 0.7890 0.0001 3.4944 0.0001 0.3402 0.0001 3.5860 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0740 0.0001 -0.0210 0.0976 0.0916 0.0001 -0.0796 0.0001 0.0286 0.0001 -0.0019 0.7974 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0688 0.0001 0.1196 0.0001 0.0623 0.0001 0.0435 0.0014 0.02952 0.0001 0.04911 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3432 0.3739 0.3339 0.4639 0.2886 0.4708 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 47 Table 9.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.4722 0.0001 -8.1516 0.0001 -0.7859 0.0001 -4.4250 0.0001 10.3124 0.0001 5.5759 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.5014 0.0001 1.9775 0.0001 0.3047 0.0153 1.8569 0.0001 0.2558 0.0001 1.2616 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 -0.0210 0.7458 0.4008 0.0051 -0.0719 0.2236 -0.0437 0.5094 0.0273 0.2101 -0.0493 0.4236 Interaction: small business and 1998 -0.0226 0.8884 -0.2817 0.2135 0.2123 0.2365 -0.4277 0.0564 -0.1580 0.0106 -0.1064 0.5425 Age of owner manager -0.0093 0.0001 0.0448 0.0001 -0.0145 0.0001 0.0469 0.0001 -0.0034 0.0001 0.0467 0.0001 Gender - man 0.8844 0.0001 0.3877 0.0956 0.9939 0.0001 0.3593 0.0002 0.2957 0.0001 0.5864 0.0001 Race - minority -0.2524 0.0011 -0.8504 0.0001 -0.1914 0.0048 -0.3951 0.0001 -0.1257 0.0001 -0.5133 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.0228 0.0001 -2.0315 0.0001 -2.2371 0.0001 -1.8112 0.0001 -0.8086 0.0001 -1.4078 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.4165 0.0001 -1.8199 0.0001 -1.2682 0.0001 -1.0628 0.0001 -0.4774 0.0001 -0.4808 0.0001 Education - some college -0.8221 0.0001 -1.2545 0.0001 -0.7778 0.0001 -0.7081 0.0001 -0.3170 0.0001 -0.5349 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0140 0.0001 0.3614 0.0365 0.8129 0.0001 0.4294 0.0001 0.3720 0.0001 0.3633 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.8361 0.0001 1.4018 0.0001 0.8200 0.0001 1.2336 0.0001 0.3588 0.0001 0.9274 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.1222 0.0001 2.0563 0.0001 0.9499 0.0001 3.5598 0.0001 0.3864 0.0001 3.5594 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0719 0.0001 -0.0223 0.0566 0.0800 0.0001 -0.0793 0.0001 0.0239 0.0001 -0.0046 0.5197 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0830 0.0001 0.1247 0.0001 0.0613 0.0001 0.0753 0.0001 0.0318 0.0001 0.0626 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3471 0.3828 0.3459 0.4745 0.3622 0.4888 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 48 Table 10.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among All Households, 2004 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.8709 0.0001 -8.8369 0.0001 -0.8444 0.0001 -5.1231 0.0001 10.2061 0.0001 5.1091 0.0001 Small business owner manager 0.6025 0.0001 1.6845 0.0001 0.3435 0.0064 1.7591 0.0001 0.1919 0.0001 1.2680 0.0001 Year dummy, 2004 0.1189 0.0682 0.2760 0.0455 -0.0733 0.2134 0.0178 0.7888 0.0348 0.1132 0.0146 0.8079 Interaction: small business and 2004 -0.1302 0.4234 -0.0123 0.9569 0.1619 0.3688 -0.3051 0.1645 -0.0961 0.1239 -0.1119 0.5132 Age of owner manager -0.0061 0.0057 0.0421 0.0001 -0.0131 0.0001 0.0505 0.0001 -0.0018 0.0092 0.0469 0.0001 Gender - man 1.0409 0.0001 0.5514 0.0140 0.9000 0.0001 0.5194 0.0001 0.3060 0.0001 0.8288 0.0001 Race - minority -0.1974 0.0100 -0.7340 0.0003 -0.1496 0.0250 -0.2148 0.0045 -0.1052 0.0001 -0.3255 0.0001 Education - no high school diploma -2.3266 0.0001 -1.6489 0.0001 -2.2695 0.0001 -1.7472 0.0001 -0.7769 0.0001 -1.0683 0.0001 Education - high school diploma -1.5275 0.0001 -1.9163 0.0001 -1.3288 0.0001 -0.9864 0.0001 -0.4812 0.0001 -0.2557 0.0004 Education - some college -0.9403 0.0001 -1.2083 0.0001 -0.8427 0.0001 -0.7693 0.0001 -0.3598 0.0001 -0.4844 0.0001 Marital status - married 1.0653 0.0001 0.3499 0.0314 1.0129 0.0001 0.3707 0.0001 0.4179 0.0001 0.1134 0.1312 Owns Stocks 0.8365 0.0001 1.3345 0.0001 0.9256 0.0001 1.3034 0.0001 0.3260 0.0001 1.0084 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.2090 0.0001 2.9691 0.0001 0.9979 0.0001 3.8417 0.0001 0.3828 0.0001 3.7581 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0614 0.0001 -0.0292 0.0114 0.0691 0.0001 -0.0726 0.0001 0.0226 0.0001 -0.0012 0.8654 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0860 0.0001 0.1323 0.0001 0.0707 0.0001 0.0828 0.0001 0.0351 0.0001 0.0723 0.0001 residential real estate McFadden R-squared 0.3605 0.3856 0.3533 0.4865 0.3502 0.4977 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth All Households, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 49 Table 11.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 1998 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.7433 0.0031 -6.5510 0.0001 -0.1080 0.8742 -1.7255 0.0574 9.8813 0.0001 9.5429 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0724 0.7861 1.3907 0.0001 0.4327 0.1948 1.2678 0.0062 0.2671 0.0342 0.7287 0.0001 Year dummy, 1998 0.3383 0.0374 0.7881 0.0022 -0.0057 0.9758 -0.1477 0.5068 0.1223 0.1147 0.1408 0.1300 Interaction: multiple owner and 1998 0.6243 0.1077 0.3210 0.4935 0.1338 0.7902 -0.1093 0.8687 0.0664 0.7037 0.3335 0.1112 Owner Charateristics Age of owner manager -0.0081 0.2672 0.0209 0.0435 -0.0162 0.0492 0.0565 0.0001 -0.0024 0.4892 0.0322 0.0001 Gender - man 0.2749 0.3685 1.3959 0.0135 1.0611 0.0007 0.6925 0.0603 0.3733 0.0086 0.3815 0.0251 Race - minority -0.0469 0.8280 -0.8793 0.0328 -0.1362 0.5722 -0.2761 0.2955 -0.1649 0.1088 -0.1311 0.2877 Education - no high school diploma -1.3276 0.0001 -1.0919 0.1013 -1.0687 0.0006 -0.2037 0.6071 -0.3780 0.0111 -0.3019 0.0907 Education - high school diploma -0.9940 0.0001 -0.9997 0.0012 -0.8889 0.0001 -0.2546 0.3307 -0.4079 0.0001 -0.2480 0.0230 Education - some college -0.8063 0.0001 -1.0801 0.0005 -0.6639 0.0041 -0.6858 0.0114 -0.3794 0.0001 -0.3114 0.0055 Marital status - married 0.8438 0.0001 -0.1789 0.5431 0.3149 0.1573 0.1296 0.6185 0.1805 0.0553 0.1745 0.1224 Owns Stocks 0.2529 0.1316 0.6073 0.0041 0.5847 0.0091 1.2530 0.0001 0.1342 0.0898 0.7447 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 0.7633 0.0052 2.4663 0.0021 0.7570 0.0041 2.9601 0.0001 0.5286 0.0001 2.1421 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0324 0.0578 -0.0210 0.3402 0.0395 0.0412 -0.0750 0.0202 0.0101 0.2030 -0.0125 0.1894 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0684 0.0012 0.1000 0.0001 0.0259 0.3398 0.0736 0.0551 0.0248 0.0052 0.0510 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0250 0.0047 0.0462 0.0001 0.0168 0.0968 0.0247 0.0879 0.0121 0.0031 0.0225 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0185 0.5865 0.1164 0.1332 0.0115 0.8174 0.0127 0.8736 0.0006 0.5149 0.0012 0.2413 Organization, partnership -0.6705 0.0181 -0.4112 0.2247 -0.6602 0.1004 -0.9698 0.0619 -0.4057 0.0019 -0.6408 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.5872 0.0258 -1.1995 0.0002 -0.6722 0.0789 -1.1489 0.0208 -0.3432 0.0046 -0.7272 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporatio 0.2978 0.3446 -0.2613 0.4431 0.6124 0.2140 0.0194 0.9738 0.2008 0.1472 -0.0616 0.7109 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.8311 0.0044 0.3616 0.4264 0.5311 0.0677 -0.1366 0.7529 0.9223 0.0001 -0.3151 0.0500 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.7025 0.0229 -0.0079 0.9874 0.6302 0.0499 -1.1247 0.0138 0.9823 0.0001 -0.5443 0.0017 Industry, services and other 1.2340 0.0001 0.8265 0.0476 1.2170 0.0001 -0.3650 0.3846 1.1753 0.0001 -0.1921 0.2044 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.1637 0.6042 -0.4828 0.2291 0.0920 0.8041 -0.0425 0.9325 -0.4142 0.0038 0.0098 0.9545 Founding status, started -0.3048 0.2954 -0.7883 0.0304 -0.2312 0.5032 -0.9446 0.0373 -0.4665 0.0004 -0.6562 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.1993 0.3669 0.1900 0.3619 0.1523 0.3782 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 1998 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 50 Table 12.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2001 – 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -1.0016 0.0836 -5.3718 0.0001 0.5041 0.4411 -0.7263 0.4259 10.4298 0.0001 9.9320 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses -0.0539 0.8363 0.5137 0.0742 -0.1150 0.7044 -0.0183 0.9670 0.1202 0.2382 0.3539 0.0074 Year dummy, 2001 -0.0837 0.6097 -0.1666 0.4563 0.1315 0.4748 -0.5105 0.0298 -0.1432 0.0303 -0.2366 0.0058 Interaction: multiple owner and 2001 0.5815 0.1317 1.1608 0.0062 0.5293 0.2680 1.1408 0.0798 0.1789 0.2152 0.6894 0.0002 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0055 0.4522 0.0302 0.0015 -0.0142 0.0787 0.0453 0.0001 -0.0066 0.0228 0.0385 0.0001 Gender - man -0.0617 0.8378 1.1880 0.0157 0.3082 0.3085 0.5006 0.1970 0.1967 0.1069 0.1655 0.2953 Race - minority 0.0701 0.7477 -0.7047 0.0595 0.0291 0.9051 -0.5822 0.0239 -0.2013 0.0220 -0.1676 0.1412 Education - no high school diploma -0.9344 0.0025 -1.7572 0.0040 -0.9474 0.0024 -0.0099 0.9820 -0.1393 0.2725 -0.1220 0.4586 Education - high school diploma -1.2255 0.0001 -1.3403 0.0001 -1.1666 0.0001 -0.3578 0.1769 -0.4253 0.0001 -0.3890 0.0001 Education - some college -0.6819 0.0008 -1.2150 0.0001 -0.6808 0.0041 -0.5390 0.0605 -0.2303 0.0052 -0.3393 0.0015 Marital status - married 0.9692 0.0001 -0.1477 0.6096 0.7817 0.0003 0.2371 0.3882 0.3281 0.0001 0.4293 0.0001 Owns Stocks 0.6045 0.0003 1.1160 0.0001 0.6311 0.0031 1.0057 0.0006 0.2991 0.0001 0.7451 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 1.0188 0.0003 1.8869 0.0010 1.0680 0.0001 2.7340 0.0001 0.7642 0.0001 1.8019 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0443 0.0075 -0.0372 0.0617 0.0308 0.0989 -0.0393 0.1970 -0.0034 0.6015 -0.0040 0.6365 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0651 0.0043 0.0993 0.0001 0.0606 0.0460 0.0799 0.0604 0.0241 0.0021 0.0487 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0214 0.0139 0.0385 0.0003 0.0135 0.1646 0.0333 0.0219 0.0130 0.0001 0.0189 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0180 0.6269 0.1484 0.0861 0.0420 0.6277 0.0093 0.8693 0.0028 0.1589 0.0027 0.2828 Organization, partnership -0.7884 0.0093 -0.2387 0.4436 -0.7289 0.0538 -1.3228 0.0197 -0.1692 0.1321 -0.5772 0.0001 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.9349 0.0009 -1.1182 0.0001 -0.7306 0.0380 -1.4814 0.0062 -0.3370 0.0012 -0.8296 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporatio 0.3338 0.3228 0.0085 0.9784 0.0925 0.8280 0.0370 0.9551 0.1825 0.1183 0.1527 0.3133 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.3268 0.2242 0.7095 0.0896 0.1399 0.6137 -0.2473 0.5603 0.4589 0.0001 -0.2044 0.1528 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.3743 0.2042 0.3991 0.3666 0.9905 0.0037 -1.0321 0.0229 0.7555 0.0001 -0.5179 0.0010 Industry, services and other 0.6615 0.0080 0.7476 0.0488 0.7647 0.0036 -0.4126 0.3072 0.7403 0.0001 -0.3417 0.0096 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.0826 0.8030 -0.4474 0.2516 -0.3472 0.3760 0.2126 0.6895 -0.3953 0.0016 0.0905 0.5775 Founding status, started -0.2150 0.4755 -0.9307 0.0095 -0.4838 0.1820 -0.7615 0.1053 -0.3339 0.0033 -0.6210 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2201 0.3485 0.2014 0.3560 0.1830 0.3906 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2001 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth ## 51 Table 13.1 Determinants of Being a High Income and High Wealth Among Small Business Households, 2004 - 2007 Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Parameter Characteristics Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Estimate p-value Constant -2.1083 0.0005 -6.2488 0.0001 -0.6058 0.3529 -2.1149 0.0234 10.2881 0.0001 9.3766 0.0001 Owns/manages multiple businesses 0.5243 0.0940 1.2449 0.0001 -0.1815 0.5985 1.4125 0.0171 0.0617 0.5859 0.7945 0.0001 Year dummy, 2007 -0.0403 0.8036 0.0753 0.7375 0.0458 0.7991 -0.3268 0.1332 -0.1277 0.0526 -0.1748 0.0392 Interaction: multiple owner and 2007 0.0379 0.9290 0.5104 0.2511 0.6991 0.1663 -0.1601 0.8346 0.2626 0.0895 0.2719 0.1717 Owner Characteristics Age of owner manager -0.0054 0.4561 0.0289 0.0033 -0.0195 0.0125 0.0620 0.0001 -0.0062 0.0308 0.0444 0.0001 Gender - man 0.7247 0.0190 1.6785 0.0030 0.9137 0.0016 1.1228 0.0020 0.3875 0.0014 0.3327 0.0334 Race - minority -0.2804 0.1826 -0.7802 0.0325 -0.5205 0.0185 -0.3386 0.1811 -0.2608 0.0023 -0.0851 0.4392 Education - no high school diploma -1.2262 0.0002 -1.4542 0.0330 -0.9908 0.0022 -0.1942 0.6375 -0.3552 0.0092 0.0487 0.7814 Education - high school diploma -1.2802 0.0001 -1.3730 0.0001 -0.6324 0.0025 0.1265 0.6348 -0.3719 0.0001 -0.2436 0.0144 Education - some college -0.7132 0.0006 -1.1355 0.0001 -0.4808 0.0429 -0.5906 0.0338 -0.3976 0.0001 -0.3414 0.0018 Marital status - married 1.0385 0.0001 -0.0204 0.9431 0.9478 0.0001 0.0580 0.8261 0.3547 0.0001 0.3847 0.0003 Owns Stocks 0.1282 0.4635 0.5579 0.0047 0.5791 0.0083 1.1192 0.0003 0.0818 0.2344 0.5374 0.0001 Owns Real Estate (>$50,000) 0.9406 0.0009 2.3597 0.0011 0.9366 0.0005 2.9458 0.0001 0.6356 0.0001 1.9130 0.0001 Log debt in mortgages secured by 0.0415 0.0188 -0.0109 0.6047 0.0241 0.2212 -0.0443 0.1602 -0.0025 0.7165 0.0044 0.6228 residential real estate Log debt in other debt secured by 0.0503 0.0169 0.0904 0.0001 0.0197 0.4333 0.0539 0.1294 0.0217 0.0043 0.0491 0.0001 residential real estate Business Characteristics Business age 0.0240 0.0083 0.0427 0.0001 0.0156 0.1162 0.0123 0.3876 0.0157 0.0001 0.0190 0.0001 Business size, number of employees 0.0102 0.7344 0.1936 0.0749 0.0444 0.6944 0.0101 0.9165 0.0029 0.1534 0.0028 0.2822 Organization, partnership -0.2964 0.3180 -0.5088 0.1250 -0.3171 0.3934 -1.1158 0.0733 -0.1474 0.2075 -0.4651 0.0020 Organization, sole proprietorship -0.6648 0.0164 -1.2002 0.0002 -0.5201 0.1397 -1.6922 0.0049 -0.2984 0.0072 -0.8566 0.0001 Organization, subchapter s corporation 0.7971 0.0219 0.3118 0.3574 0.9870 0.0390 -0.0379 0.9581 0.1637 0.1910 0.1421 0.3776 Industry, construction, manufacturing 0.4021 0.1641 0.3608 0.4149 0.0559 0.8501 0.0171 0.9659 0.4497 0.0001 -0.4343 0.0043 Industry, wholesale, retail 0.8296 0.0067 -0.0849 0.8555 0.5908 0.0689 -0.4957 0.2405 0.7017 0.0001 -0.5139 0.0014 Industry, services and other 1.3123 0.0001 0.7225 0.0791 0.8828 0.0021 0.2188 0.5756 0.9202 0.0001 -0.3306 0.0218 Founding status, bou ght, invested 0.0359 0.9153 -0.4232 0.2807 0.2637 0.4657 -0.2077 0.6910 -0.4036 0.0016 -0.0505 0.7591 Founding status, started -0.3654 0.2322 -1.1865 0.0008 0.2132 0.5175 -1.2583 0.0074 -0.3467 0.0025 -0.6572 0.0001 McFadden R-squared 0.2603 0.3841 0.2218 0.3837 0.1755 0.4023 Logistic Regression Log Income Log Wealth Small Business Households Only, 2004 - 2007 Logistic Regression High Income Proba bility High Wealth Proba bility Logistic Regression Highest 50% Income Highest 50% Wealth